Huachuang Securities·2025-06-12 09:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - In 2024, the total net profit of key automotive companies is expected to decline significantly, primarily due to the substantial drop in profitability of American car manufacturers. The total net profit for key companies is projected at 134.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31% [2][8]. - Domestic independent brands are showing a remarkable increase in profitability, with net profits rising from 42.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 75.4 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 76% increase [8]. - The market share of independent brands is expected to continue to rise, while that of joint venture brands is projected to decline [4]. Summary by Sections Net Profit - The net profit of key automotive companies in 2024 is expected to be 134.2 billion yuan, down 31% year-on-year. Excluding one-time gains and asset impairments, the adjusted profit is 148.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 23% [2][8]. - The profitability of independent brands is significantly improving, with a net profit share of 56% in 2024, up from 22% in 2023 [8]. Sales Volume - Total sales volume for key automotive companies is projected to increase to 24.83 million units in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5%. Independent brands are expected to see a 22% increase in sales [3]. - The market share of independent brands is expected to rise to 58% in 2024, while that of joint venture brands is projected to drop to 33% [3]. Single Vehicle Profitability - The absolute value of single vehicle profitability is narrowing between independent and joint venture brands. In 2024, the average single vehicle profit for independent brands is expected to reach 6.3 thousand yuan, while joint venture brands average 6.1 thousand yuan [3]. - The overall single vehicle profit is expected to decline by 0.3 thousand yuan in 2024, with independent and new force brands showing significant improvements [3].