2025年5月美国物价数据点评：美国通胀暂低，降息预期再起

Inflation Data - In May 2025, the US CPI year-on-year growth was 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations[5] - The core CPI remained at 2.8%, below the market expectation of 2.9%[6] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.1%, down from 0.2% in April, and below the expected 0.2%[6] Core Components - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI, with energy inflation decreasing by 1.0% month-on-month, dragging down the CPI by 0.1 percentage points[7] - Core goods inflation showed limited upward pressure, with notable increases in specific items like furniture, auto parts, and pharmaceuticals, while clothing and new cars saw declines[9] - Core services inflation also weakened, particularly in rent and medical services, with rent decreasing by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates in the short term due to stable employment and significant inflation uncertainties[3] - Market expectations indicate potential rate cuts in September and December, with a forecasted reduction of 50 basis points[19] Tariff Impact - The report highlights a lag in the transmission of tariffs to inflation, with companies remaining cautious in price increases amid uncertain consumer and tariff outlooks[3] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on core goods may become evident as inventory levels decrease and companies adjust pricing strategies[16] Future Considerations - There is a need to monitor inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices and energy costs, which may rise in the coming months[16] - The Cleveland Fed estimates that the CPI year-on-year growth could rise to approximately 2.7% in June 2025[16]