ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-06-12 09:50Core Viewpoints - The Chinese medicine industry is expected to see a performance turning point, with significant improvements in revenue and profit growth anticipated in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, and continued growth in H2 2025 [3][7] - The industry exhibits characteristics similar to the banking sector, including high cash reserves, substantial dividends, and low profit volatility, with minimal impact from overseas situations [3][7] Key Indicators Tracking - Influenza data has stabilized, reducing revenue growth pressure on companies [11] - The price index of Chinese medicinal materials has declined, which is expected to alleviate gross margin pressure [13] - Institutional holdings are low, with the proportion of fund holdings in the Chinese medicine sector dropping to 0.46% as of Q1 2025, indicating potential for increased investment interest under favorable tariff policies in the U.S. [18] - The sector's valuation is slightly above the average level since 2021, with a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 27.78x as of June 12, 2025 [21] Investment Recommendations - Companies with stable and rapid profit growth and new consumption logic include Dong'e Ejiao and Lingrui Pharmaceutical, with a focus on Mayinglong [30] - High-barrier, large-cap state-owned enterprises with light institutional positions include Tianshili, Yunnan Baiyao, Tongrentang, and Pianzaihuang [30][6] Mid-Year Performance Outlook - The report provides a forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating expected year-on-year growth rates for various companies, with Dong'e Ejiao projected to grow by approximately 20% in Q2 2025 [34]