全国碳市场行情简报（2025年第93期）-20250612

Report Title - National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 93, 2025) [1] Report Provider - Guotai Junan Futures [2] Release Date - June 12, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - CEA prices rebounded with reduced volume, and market participants showed strong willingness to support prices [3] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - The remaining 40% of mandatory circulation quotas in 2025 can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4] - After the CEA price fell to around 70 yuan/ton, bottom - fishing demand emerged. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is insufficient, potential selling pressure still exists, and the market price is oscillating at the bottom without upward driving force. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to increase in mid - to - late June, and the bottom range in June is expected to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton [6] - If the selling time of surplus enterprises is postponed further, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the daily trading volume can increase significantly, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6] Market Quotes Summary CEA - CEA21 and CEA22 showed abnormal movements, and CEA23 had a mild rebound. The volume of listed transactions was 82,000 tons, and the volume of large - scale transactions was 100,000 tons [12] - CEA19 - 20 closed at 69.11 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 72.00 yuan/ton with a 6.67% increase; CEA22 at 71.50 yuan/ton with a 6.72% increase; CEA23 at 69.85 yuan/ton with a 0.82% increase; CEA24 at 69.50 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change [8] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume was 77,900 tons, and the average transaction price was 87.28 yuan/ton with a 9.03% increase [10][12]