海外观察：美国2025年5月CPI数据：关税冲击尚未显现，需求端预期或成关键

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. May CPI year-on-year increased to 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% and up from the previous 2.3%[2] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.3% and previous 0.2%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year remained at 2.8%, matching the previous value but below the expected 2.9%[2] Key Influencing Factors - Energy service price growth slowed to 0.4% from 1.5%, primarily due to a drop in natural gas prices, which fell from 3.7% to -1.0%[2] - Core goods prices saw a decline, with a month-on-month change of 0%, down from 0.1%, driven by reduced demand following a consumer purchasing surge in Q1[2] - Core services prices increased by 0.2%, down from 0.3%, influenced by a cooling rental market[2] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, while bond yields and the dollar index fell, indicating strong expectations for interest rate cuts[2][4] - The market anticipates a 99.8% probability of no rate change in the upcoming June meeting, with a significant chance of cuts by September[4] Risks and Outlook - The impact of tariff negotiations on inflation expectations is significant, with one-year inflation expectations rising to 6.6%, exceeding actual inflation rates[2] - Potential risks include unexpected outcomes from tariff negotiations leading to upward pressure on inflation expectations and a downturn in the U.S. economy[2]