供需矛盾，盘面继续探底

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices continued to decline with a bearish market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction was obvious. The supply remained high while the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Although the price was at a low level and might rebound, the rebound height was expected to be limited and would depend on export and agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened low and closed lower, approaching historical lows. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The daily output remained high, restricting the upside of the price. The demand was weak, with low agricultural fertilizer - preparation enthusiasm, decreasing compound fertilizer factory operation rates, and a decline in melamine operation rates. The inventory increased due to slow downstream purchases and postponed port inspections. The price was expected to rebound, but the height would depend on exports and agricultural demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1670 yuan/ton and closed at 1646 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was 307097 lots (+20038 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 11936 lots and short positions by 15036 lots. Some futures companies had changes in net long and net short positions [2]. Spot - Upstream factory quotes were mainly stable with a downward trend, and new orders were not smoothly traded. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The spot market mainstream quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 84 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. Supply Data - On June 12, 2025, the national urea daily output was 20.30 tons, the same as the previous day [10]. Downstream Data - From June 6 to June 12, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.81%, down 3.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.77%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous week [13].