全球货币变局研究七：稳定币：如何重塑全球货币和资产

Market Overview - The stablecoin market has seen significant growth since 2020, with a current market capitalization of nearly $245 billion, representing about 7% of the total cryptocurrency market valued at approximately $3.4 trillion[15][18]. - Over 99% of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, with USDT and USDC dominating the market, accounting for 62.8% and 25.5% of the total stablecoin market capitalization, respectively[18][22]. Drivers of Growth - The growth of stablecoins is driven by their advantages in payment settlements, including efficiency, cost savings, and risk mitigation compared to traditional fiat currencies and other cryptocurrencies[15][22]. - Increased geopolitical risks and economic instability in emerging markets have created a demand for stablecoins as alternative currencies, with countries like Turkey seeing stablecoin purchases amounting to nearly 4% of their GDP[30][32]. Regulatory Developments - The passage of the "GENIUS Act" in the US marks a significant step towards establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins, which is expected to enhance market development and attract more foreign investment[6][22][35]. - The act requires stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve of compliant assets for every stablecoin issued, which is crucial for maintaining trust and stability in the market[38][41]. Impact on Global Currency and Assets - Stablecoins are expected to strengthen the US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system, potentially challenging the effectiveness of monetary policy in countries with unstable currencies[41][43]. - While the expansion of the stablecoin market may increase demand for US Treasury bonds, its overall impact on short-term bonds is limited, and it does not alleviate the pressure on long-term bonds due to persistent fiscal deficits[45][48]. Risks and Challenges - The ongoing uncertainty regarding cryptocurrency regulations in regions like mainland China poses risks to the stablecoin market's growth and adoption[50]. - The reliance of stablecoins on the US dollar's credit may not be sufficient to counteract the potential damage to dollar credibility amid global de-dollarization trends[32][49].