银河期货粕类日报-20250612

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: "Commodity Research Institute Agricultural Product Research Report - Meal Daily Report" [1][2] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Market Review - US soybean futures showed a volatile trend with limited market changes; domestic soybean meal futures rebounded after a decline, and rapeseed meal futures strengthened significantly [4] - The inter - monthly spreads of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures were strong due to concerns about future supply shortages [4] Group 3: Price and Spread Data Futures and Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts in different regions had different changes, and the basis also changed; for rapeseed meal, similar price and basis changes were observed [4] Inter - monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 59 spread was - 319 (down 5), 91 spread was - 13 (up 4), and 15 spread was 332 (up 1); for rapeseed meal, the 59 spread was - 300 (down 25), 91 spread was 311 (up 22), and 15 spread was - 11 (up 3) [4] Cross - variety Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 699 (down 16), 09 spread was 375 (down 34), and the oil - meal ratio of 01 was 2.496 (up 0.001) [4] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 680 (up 14), between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 649 (down 18), and between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 19 (down 2) [4] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis International Market - As of the week ending June 5, the good - to - excellent rate of US new - crop soybeans was 68%, and the export inspection volume of old - crop soybeans was 547,000 tons; the USDA - reported soybean crushing volume in April was 5.508 million tons, a 2.03% month - on - month decrease [5] - Brazilian farmers' selling progress was slow, and the recent soybean crushing volume decreased; Argentina's domestic soybean crushing growth might slow down [5] Domestic Market - As of June 6, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2446 million tons, with an operating rate of 63.1%; soybean inventory was 6.1029 million tons (up 4.7% week - on - week and 24.7% year - on - year), and soybean meal inventory was 382,500 tons (up 28.36% week - on - week and down 57% year - on - year) [6] - As of the week ending June 6, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 72,000 tons, with an operating rate of 19.19%; rapeseed inventory was 202,000 tons (down 30,000 tons week - on - week), and rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons (down 1,000 tons week - on - week) [6] Group 5: Macro and Logic Analysis - The Sino - US negotiation in London provided no clear macro guidance, and the market was still worried about supply uncertainties; with market stabilization, macro disturbances decreased [7] - Domestic soybean meal futures were volatile with limited fundamental positives; US soybean futures might face downward pressure; rapeseed meal futures were expected to be volatile [7] - The inter - monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures were expected to be strongly supported due to supply concerns [7] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, short positions in small amounts are recommended; for arbitrage, a long M11 - short M1 spread is recommended; for options, selling call options is recommended [8] Group 7: Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profits of soybeans from different origins (Argentina and Brazil) and different shipping dates varied, with some showing increases and some showing decreases compared to the previous day [9]