瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250612

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - In the corn market, the good condition of US corn and the easing of Sino - US trade relations have raised concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the sales of traders in the Northeast have slowed, some processing enterprises have tight inventories and strong restocking intentions, and the purchase price is relatively strong. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the wheat harvest has reduced the market's circulating grain sources, and the purchase price of processing enterprises has been raised. Supported by the wheat purchase at the minimum price, the recent corn futures price has risen significantly, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. - In the corn starch market, due to the short - term supply shortage of raw corn in North China and continuous production losses of corn starch enterprises, the industry's operating rate has dropped to a new low this year. With reduced supply pressure and strong corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, and the industry inventory has slightly declined. The starch market has shown a strong and volatile trend following the corn market, and short - term participation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2710 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2372 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 130 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 66 yuan/ton; the main contract CS - C spread is 380 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Futures positions: the positions of active contracts of yellow corn are 762,225 hands, down 61,720 hands; those of corn starch are 182,540 hands, down 7,636 hands. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of corn are - 128,870 hands, down 19,732 hands; those of corn starch are - 11,031 hands, down 603 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: there are 216,285 hands of yellow corn, down 210 hands; 24,237 hands of corn starch, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 436.5 cents/bushel, down 2.5 cents; CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1,669,150 contracts, up 14,336 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 81,059 contracts, down 60,726 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2406.27 yuan/ton, up 5.09 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The flat - hatch price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2390 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1930.25 yuan/ton, up 2.44 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 34.27 yuan, up 7.09 yuan; the basis of the corn starch main contract is 10 yuan, down 1 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn (weekly) is 416 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 377.63 million hectares, unchanged; the predicted output is 126 million tons, unchanged; in Brazil, the sown area is 33.55 million hectares, unchanged, and the output is 22.3 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina, the sown area is 50 million hectares, unchanged, and the output is 6.4 million tons, unchanged; in China, the sown area is 294.92 million hectares, unchanged, and the output is 44.74 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports (weekly) is 26.8 million tons, unchanged; the deep - processed corn inventory (weekly) is 465.4 million tons, up 12.7 million tons; the corn inventory in northern ports (weekly) is 115 million tons, down 21.7 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn is 18 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 23,720 tons, up 3,370 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 million tons, down 66.4 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 103 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; in Hebei is - 71 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; in Jilin is - 96 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 49.92%, up 5.01%; the starch enterprise operating rate (weekly) is 48.71%, down 3.07% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn (daily) is 6.87%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.46%, down 0.11% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of corn (daily) is 9.58%, down 0.98%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.58%, down 0.98% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - ANEC predicts that the Brazilian corn export volume in June 2025 will increase to 923,400 tons, higher than the previous estimate but 6% lower than that in June last year [2]. - Analysts expect the ending inventory of US corn in the 2024/25 season to be adjusted down to 1.392 billion bushels, slightly lower than the USDA's May forecast [2]. - As of the week ending June 8, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US corn is 71%, higher than the market expectation [2].