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终端需求走弱,钢矿低位震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-06-12 10:57

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.70%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand situation of rebar remained weak on both sides. Although supply contraction led to inventory reduction, demand was also weak, and the fundamentals did not improve. With low inventory and few real - world contradictions, it was expected that rebar would continue to oscillate at a low level during the off - season [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated downward, with a daily decline of 0.87%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coil remained weak. Supply slightly contracted from a high level but the pressure persisted, and demand was weakly stable. With inventory continuously increasing and the Sino - US trade risk easing, it was expected that the price of hot - rolled coil would continue to oscillate at a low level [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a low level, with a daily decline of 0.21%, and both volume and open interest contracted. Although the repair of pessimistic expectations drove the discounted ore price to oscillate upward, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation led to a weak fundamental performance of iron ore. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected that the ore price would maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London from June 9th to 10th. Both sides reached a principle agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' phone call on June 5th and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns [6]. - Shanghai Minhang initiated the first project of purchasing existing commercial housing for affordable rental housing. The practice originated from the monetized construction mechanism of affordable housing [7]. - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron in Australia planned to merge into Hancock Iron Ore on July 1st. Roy Hill exported about 64 million tons of iron ore to the Asian market annually, and Atlas Iron mined and exported about 10 million tons annually [8]. Spot Market - For steel products, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,060 yuan, down 20 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; and the national average was 3,234 yuan, down 2 yuan. The spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,200 yuan, unchanged; in Tianjin it was 3,110 yuan, down 20 yuan; and the national average was 3,244 yuan, down 5 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,920 yuan, unchanged, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 yuan, up 20 yuan. The coil - rebar spread was 140 yuan, up 20 yuan, and the rebar - scrap spread was 960 yuan, down 40 yuan [9]. - For iron ore, the price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 720 yuan, down 5 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 722 yuan, down 5 yuan. The freight from Australia was 9.55 yuan, down 0.13 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.33 yuan, down 0.07 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) was 95.80 yuan, up 0.50 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.75 yuan, up 0.80 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,968 yuan, with a decline of 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,312,653 lots, a decrease of 202,202 lots, and the open interest was 2,220,025 lots, an increase of 55,793 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,080 yuan, with a decline of 0.87%. The trading volume was 490,001 lots, a decrease of 108,817 lots, and the open interest was 1,566,756 lots, an increase of 3,326 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 704.0 yuan, with a decline of 0.21%. The trading volume was 256,930 lots, a decrease of 90,128 lots, and the open interest was 716,699 lots, a decrease of 12,525 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report presented charts on steel and iron ore inventories (including rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore at ports and in mines), as well as charts on steel mill production (such as blast furnace operating rates, capacity utilization rates, and the proportion of profitable steel mills) [15][29]. Market Outlook - For rebar, supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and inventory decreased. However, due to good profit per ton, the sustainability of production reduction was uncertain. Demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons. It was expected to continue oscillating at a low level during the off - season [38]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although production decreased by 41,000 tons week - on - week, it was still at a high level. Demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons. With the Sino - US trade negotiation making progress, it was expected to continue oscillating at a low level [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern was weakly stable. Terminal consumption was weakly stable, but demand was expected to weaken during the off - season. Domestic port arrivals continued to rise, and overseas shipments were at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and was expected to oscillate at a low level [40].