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聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250612
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-12 11:04

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core View - Polypropylene (PP) is greatly affected by the macro - situation, including Sino - US negotiations and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, bringing significant uncertainty to the market. However, the fundamentals of PP have changed little recently. With increasing supply pressure and weak demand, the upside potential of PP is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The monthly price range of PP is predicted to be between 6,800 and 7,100 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 9.69%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 12.0% [1]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,050 - 7,100 yuan, and sell PP2509C7000 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6,800 - 6,900 yuan, and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - situation has a great impact on polyolefins. The supply of PP is under pressure due to reduced planned maintenance and upcoming new device launches. The demand is weak as it is the traditional off - season for downstream orders and the downstream profit is poor this year [2]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - Current device maintenance is at a high level, leading to a marginal reduction in supply. - The current market is at a low level, limiting the downside space. - Tensions in the Middle East may drive up oil prices, supporting polyolefins [3]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Yulong Line 2 was launched during the Dragon Boat Festival, and multiple devices will be launched from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. - The seasonal peak of exports has passed, and subsequent exports are expected to decline. - It is the off - season for downstream sales, and domestic demand is weak due to poor overall profits this year [4]. 3.6 Market Data - Futures Prices and Spreads: On June 12, 2025, the PP01 contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, the PP05 contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, and the PP09 contract was 6,969 yuan/ton. There were corresponding daily and weekly changes in these contracts and their spreads [5][7]. - Spot Prices and Regional Spreads: On June 12, 2025, the spot price in North China was 6,975 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,195 yuan/ton. There were also changes in regional spreads [7]. - Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads: There were changes in the spreads between different non - standard and standard PP products, such as the spread between homopolymer injection molding and wire drawing [7]. - Upstream Prices and Processing Profits: The Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US propane price was 543.032 dollars/ton, etc. There were different profit situations for various PP production methods, such as oil - based, coal - based, etc. [7].