煤焦日报：多空僵持，煤焦低位震荡-20250612

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coke: On June 12, the main coke contract closed at 1,328.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.77%. The spot price at Rizhao Port dropped 5.22% week-on-week. The weak coking coal market fails to support coke costs, and steel mills still want to lower prices. Since May, coke supply and demand have both decreased, and the off - season suppresses the industry. Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants decreased by 0.15% week - on - week, and the average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.11 tons week - on - week. Despite short - term price rebounds due to coking coal supply disruptions and Sino - US relations improvement, the market is still bearish, and the main coke contract remains at a low level [5][32]. - Coking Coal: On June 12, the main coking coal contract closed at 766.5 points, down 2.79% intraday. The spot price at Ganqimaodu Port fell 1.1% week - on - week. Since late May, some coal mines have reduced production, and in June, safety and environmental inspections increase production uncertainty. The coking coal output of 523 steel - related enterprises has declined for three consecutive weeks, and political unrest in Mongolia has raised concerns. Although market sentiment has slightly improved, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the coking coal futures maintain low - level fluctuations [6][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - In May 2025, the total new commercial housing transaction area in 10 key cities was 6.4404 million square meters, a 7.6% month - on - month increase but a 17.1% year - on - year decrease. The transaction areas in Beijing, Chengdu, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased month - on - month, with Shenzhen having the largest decline of 21.8%. The transaction areas in the other 6 cities increased month - on - month, with Foshan having a 32.7% increase [8]. - On June 12, the coking coal price in Jinzhong market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of medium - sulfur main coking coal being 950 yuan/ton [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the flat - price warehouse is 1,270 yuan/ton, a 5.22% week - on - week and month - on - month decrease, and a 24.85% decrease from the end of last year and a 36.18% decrease compared to the same period. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke at the ex - warehouse is 1,180 yuan/ton, a 0.84% week - on - week decrease, a 3.28% month - on - month decrease, a 27.16% decrease from the end of last year, and a 38.86% decrease compared to the same period [10]. - Coking Coal: The current price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 890 yuan/ton, a 1.11% week - on - week decrease, a 3.26% month - on - month decrease, a 24.58% decrease from the end of last year, and a 45.06% decrease compared to the same period. The prices of Australian and Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port also showed varying degrees of decline [10]. Futures Market - Coke: The main coke contract closed at 1,328.5 yuan/ton, down 1.77% intraday, with a trading volume of 22,601 lots (a decrease of 2,800 lots) and an open interest of 52,536 lots (a decrease of 255 lots) [13]. - Coking Coal: The main coking coal contract closed at 766.5 points, down 2.79% intraday, with a trading volume of 880,359 lots (a decrease of 271,745 lots) and an open interest of 562,882 lots (an increase of 5,853 lots) [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal in different sectors (such as independent coking plants, steel mills, ports), as well as production and operation indicators of related industries (such as blast furnace operating rate, steel mill profitability, washing plant production, and coking plant operation) [14][20][27] Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals are weak, and the main contract will likely continue to trade at a low level due to weak cost support, continuous supply - demand decline, and intense market competition [32]. - Coking Coal: Although short - term sentiment has improved, the long - term supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the futures will maintain low - level fluctuations [33].