白糖：供需格局转向宽松，进口压力兑现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The reduction of gasoline prices in Brazil suppresses ethanol prices, increasing sugar supply through the sugar - ethanol ratio mechanism. Coupled with global production increase expectations and China's import pressure, the raw sugar price has broken through support levels, and sugar prices will remain weak in the short term [3][45][46]. - India and Thailand have a high certainty of production increase due to climate improvement and policy support, pushing the global sugar market into an oversupply cycle and putting pressure on international sugar prices [3][23][45]. - Domestically, one should be vigilant about the impact of the arrival rhythm of imported sugar on the basis. The core contradiction lies in the strengthening of the supply - demand relaxation pattern [3][45][46]. - The price differentiation between domestic production and sales areas continues. Low inventories in production areas support prices, while the arrival of processed sugar in sales areas and relatively low costs force price cuts [3][45][46]. - China's sugar production has reached a new high, and sales are differentiated, being suppressed by terminal consumption transformation and import expectations [3][45][46]. - In the short term, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. One needs to closely monitor the arrival rhythm of imports and the impact of Northern Hemisphere weather on the supply - demand outlook. Future key variables include Brazil's weather and crushing progress, India's monsoon rain intensity, crude oil price trends, and China's import policy [3][45][46]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Supply - Demand Pattern Shifts from Shortage to Relaxation 3.1.1 Short - term Shortage Continues, Long - term Oversupply Expectations Strengthen - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the global sugar market continued its shortage pattern due to production cuts in India and Pakistan. The ISO's latest forecast shows a global sugar shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 2024/25 sugar season, an increase of 590,000 tons from the previous estimate, reaching the highest level in 9 years [8]. - In the 2025/26 sugar season, Brazil's bumper harvest and the production increase of major Asian producers will lead to a shift in global supply to oversupply, with significant downward pressure on sugar prices. Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, while StoneX is more optimistic, predicting a surplus of 3.74 million tons [9]. 3.1.2 Brazil's Supply Pressure Intensifies Global Oversupply Expectations - Brazil's sugar production has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The estimated sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 sugar season is 39 - 42 million tons, at a historical high. The sugar - making ratio has risen to 51.14%, and sugar mills tend to produce sugar [10]. - The decline in ethanol prices in Brazil is a key factor in the weakening of raw sugar. The reduction of gasoline prices by Petrobras has weakened the competitiveness of ethanol as a fuel substitute, causing sugar mills to be more inclined to produce sugar [10]. 3.1.3 India and Thailand's Production Increase Pushes the Global Sugar Market to Oversupply - India's sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar season was only 26.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. In the 2025/26 sugar season, it is expected to rebound to 30 - 35 million tons, an increase of about 4 - 9 million tons compared to the 2024/25 season [21][22]. - Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar season increased by 14.81% year - on - year to 10.04 million tons, and is expected to further increase to 11.5 million tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [23]. 3.2 Domestic High - Inventory Digestion and Import Impact 3.2.1 National Sugar Production Reaches a New High, Sales Progress Differs - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the national sugar production is estimated to be 11.1 - 11.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.59 - 12.28%, reaching a new high for the season [25]. - Currently, the overall domestic sales progress is fast, but there is significant regional differentiation. As of the end of May, the national sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.52 percentage points [26]. 3.2.2 Import Pressure is About to Materialize - The expected import volume will increase. After the price - fixing window opens, the procurement enthusiasm of processing plants is high, and it is expected that all licenses will be used up. After May, the concentrated arrival of price - fixed sugar will significantly increase market supply [41]. - Future processed sugar will face concentrated arrivals. It is estimated that 800,000 tons of processed sugar will arrive from June to August, and the arrival volume will be more concentrated from July to August [41]. 3.3 Summary - The reduction of gasoline prices in Brazil suppresses ethanol prices, increasing sugar supply through the sugar - ethanol ratio mechanism. Coupled with global production increase expectations and China's import pressure, the raw sugar price has broken through support levels, and sugar prices will remain weak in the short term [45][46]. - India and Thailand have a high certainty of production increase due to climate improvement and policy support, pushing the global sugar market into an oversupply cycle and putting pressure on international sugar prices [45][46]. - Domestically, one should be vigilant about the impact of the arrival rhythm of imported sugar on the basis. The core contradiction lies in the strengthening of the supply - demand relaxation pattern [45][46].