关于棕榈油产地情况的几个要点

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamental of palm oil is weakening marginally, lacking a strong upward drive. The market is expected to enter a bottom - building phase in the next one to two months with a possible downward trend, but the decline may be affected by various factors [48]. - In the long - term, the overall supply of palm oil is not abundant. If the B40 biodiesel policy is implemented smoothly and there are no significant macro - level negative factors, palm oil should not be overly underestimated, and it is expected to fluctuate within a large range [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - Recent palm oil futures have increased in intraday volatility, affected by factors such as the U.S. biodiesel policy, India's tax cuts, and macro - external factors. The situation in palm oil - producing areas is crucial for the supply - demand pattern and price trends [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation - Malaysian Palm Oil Production: In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation was slightly lower than expected, with production increasing by 5.05% to 177 million tons, an export increase to 139 million tons, and apparent consumption at 33 million tons. In June, production may decrease by 4% to about 170 million tons, and from June to August, the average monthly production is expected to be around 179 million tons. The CPO spot price is expected to decline [6][7]. - Malaysian Palm Oil Exports: From January to April, cumulative exports were 428 million tons, a 13% year - on - year decrease. In May, exports exceeded expectations, and India's tax cuts may lead to a short - term improvement, but overall annual exports may be weak [20]. - Indonesian Palm Oil Production: In March, production increased by 16% to 481 million tons, exports increased to 288 million tons, and inventory decreased to 204 million tons. In Q2, production is expected to be normal but without the high growth rate of March [28][29]. - Indonesian Palm Oil Exports and Biodiesel: In April, exports were weak. Indonesia raised the Levy tax, but also lowered the CPO reference price. Biodiesel implementation is not pessimistic, with a target completion rate of over 80% and a possible remaining balance in the biodiesel fund by the end of the year [35][38]. 3.3 Conclusion - In the short - term, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June may be around 200 million tons, similar to May. As the peak production season approaches, production and inventory will increase, and palm oil prices may decline. - In the long - term, the supply of palm oil is not overly abundant, and if the B40 biodiesel policy is implemented smoothly and there are no major macro - level negative factors, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range [48].