银河期货油脂日报-20250612

Report Overview - Report Title: Grease Daily Report - Report Date: June 12, 2025 - Report Author: Liu Qiannan - Research Institute: Commodity Research Institute, Agricultural Product R & D Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, oils and fats are expected to maintain a volatile trend. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: - Soybean Oil: The 2509 closing price was 7688, down 6. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 7958, 7948, and 7908 respectively. Basis values were 260, 270, and 220, with Tianjin's basis up 20 [4]. - Palm Oil: The 2509 closing price was 8010, up 40. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 8360, 8410, and 8480 respectively. Basis values were 350, 400, and 470, with Guangdong's basis down 10 and Tianjin's down 30 [4]. - Rapeseed Oil: The 2509 closing price was 9178, up 29. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 9358, 9238. Basis values were 180 and 60, with no change [4]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: - For the 9 - 1 spread, soybean oil was 44, down 6; palm oil was 20, up 4; rapeseed oil was 148, up 7 [4]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: - For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 322, down 46; the OI - Y spread was 1490, up 35; the OI - P spread was 1168, down 11; the oil - meal ratio was 2.52, down 0.004 [4]. - Import Profits: - For 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia with a 7 - month shipment, the CNF price was 970, and the disk profit was - 311. For crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam with a 7 - month shipment, the FOB price was 1068, and the disk profit was - 1429 [4]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories (2025 Week 23): - Soybean oil inventory was 81.3 million tons, up from 75.5 million tons last week and down from 93.8 million tons the same period last year. Palm oil inventory was 37.3 million tons, up from 36.4 million tons last week and similar to 36.8 million tons the same period last year. Rapeseed oil inventory was 76.9 million tons, down from 78.2 million tons last week and up from 41.9 million tons the same period last year [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: In May, India's sunflower oil imports were 183,555 tons, up 1.9% month - on - month; soybean oil imports were 398,585 tons, up 10.42% month - on - month; palm oil imports were 592,888 tons, up 84.44% month - on - month. Total vegetable oil imports were 1,187,068 tons, up 33.15% month - on - month [6]. - Domestic Market: - Palm Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 37.26 million tons, up 2.36% week - on - week, still at a relatively low level. The origin's quotes were stable with a slight decline, and the import profit inversion narrowed. The spot market changed little, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. The origin is expected to increase production and accumulate inventory, and palm oil lacks a clear and continuous positive driver, expected to move sideways in the short term [6]. - Soybean Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 224,460 tons, and the startup rate was 63.1%, down from the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 81.27 million tons, up 7.66% week - on - week, at a relatively neutral and slightly low level, and the basis declined. The market is concerned about the implementation of US biodiesel, and the盘面 will be affected. The US soybean sowing is underway, and the good rate is lower than expected, but the impact is limited. The short - term 盘面 will maintain a volatile trend [8]. - Rapeseed Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly higher. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 72,000 tons, and the startup rate was 19.19%, down from the previous week. As of May 30, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 78.2 million tons, down 0.3 million tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote was around $1050, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1300. The spot market was weak, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight increase. There are many policy disturbances in the short term, and the single - side will maintain a wide - range volatile trend. Attention should be paid to rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Single - Side: It is expected that oils and fats will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China's first - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, and various spreads and price differences, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [13][16]