美国通胀低于预期

Economic Overview - The US CPI inflation in May was lower than expected, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.08%, down from 0.22% in April, and below the market expectation of 0.2%[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth continued to rebound from 2.3% to 2.4%[4] - Core CPI month-on-month growth decreased from 0.24% to 0.13%, significantly below the expected 0.3%[4] Inflation Drivers - Energy prices saw a month-on-month decline of 1%, with gasoline prices dropping from -0.1% to -2.6%[4] - Core goods prices fell, with new and used car prices decreasing to -0.5%[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be lower than anticipated, with the actual tariff rate rising to around 16% from 2.3% in Q1, potentially pushing inflation up by about 1.5% annually[4] Consumer Behavior - Core services inflation decreased, indicating weakened discretionary spending, with travel service prices continuing to decline[4] - Rent inflation, which accounts for nearly 35% of CPI, fell from 0.4% to 0.3%[4] - The super core service price growth (excluding rent) dropped from 0.18% to 0.04%[4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach in the short term, with potential rate cuts of two times between September and December[4] - The combination of falling demand and lower inflation pressures may lead to a more accommodative monetary policy[4]