兴业期货日度策略-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For commodity futures, maintain a bearish outlook on coking coal, soda ash, and Shanghai nickel [1]. - The A - share market is expected to maintain a pattern of sector rotation and bullish oscillations before further policy incentives [1]. - The bond market is likely to remain range - bound, with the current liquidity environment providing some support, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [1]. - Gold and silver are expected to oscillate bullishly, and strategies such as buying on dips based on long - term moving averages or holding short positions in out - of - the - money put options are recommended [4]. - Copper, aluminum, and nickel in the non - ferrous metals sector are expected to oscillate within a range, with different influencing factors for each metal [4]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate bearishly due to limited improvement in fundamentals and oversupply [4]. - Silicon energy is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to sell put options as the current price is unlikely to drop significantly [6]. - The black metal sector is expected to oscillate, and different strategies are recommended for different varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore [6]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate bearishly due to supply - demand imbalances [8]. - Soda ash and float glass are expected to be bearish, and corresponding short - position strategies are recommended [8]. - Crude oil is expected to oscillate bearishly, but there is a potential risk of a sharp increase, and it is recommended to buy call options for protection [8]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate, with limited upside potential due to increasing supply [10]. - Polyolefins are expected to decline due to increasing supply pressure [10]. - Cotton is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to maintain the previous long - allocation strategy and wait for the outcome of trade negotiations [10]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate bearishly due to an oversupply situation [10]. Summary by Catalog Stock Index - On Wednesday, the A - share market oscillated upward, with the ChiNext leading the gains. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly to 1.29 trillion yuan (previous value: 1.45 trillion yuan). Sectors such as non - ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and non - bank finance led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and communication industries declined slightly [1]. - The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation reached a framework for implementing the Geneva consensus, with limited incremental positive news. The recent trading volume of the A - share market has rebounded slightly but remains at a low level, making it difficult to support continuous market growth. Before further policy incentives, the market is expected to maintain a pattern of sector rotation and bullish oscillations [1]. Treasury Bond - Yesterday, the bond market opened higher and then oscillated bullishly, with the TL contract remaining stronger. The Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative stated that China and the US have reached an agreement framework in principle, with no unexpected content. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals in the open market, and the capital cost remained loose, with DR001 below 1.4%. Supported by the central bank's announced repurchase volume, the bond market sentiment was relatively positive. Overall, the bond market is expected to remain range - bound [1]. Gold and Silver - The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation ended with details unknown, and the market has different interpretations. In May, the year - on - year growth rate of the US CPI rebounded but was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The Middle East situation has become tense. In the short term, safe - haven sentiment and the long - term cycle are favorable for gold prices. It is recommended to buy on dips based on long - term moving averages or hold short positions in out - of - the - money put options. After the convergence of the gold - silver ratio, silver will generally follow the trend of gold prices [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Yesterday, Shanghai copper oscillated during the morning session and opened lower at night, then oscillated horizontally. The Sino - US reached an agreement framework in principle, with no unexpected content. The US dollar index weakened again, falling below 98.5. The supply of the mining end remains tight, and domestic smelting enterprises are under increasing cost pressure. Affected by macro uncertainties and the domestic consumption off - season, the overall demand is cautious. The macro environment remains highly uncertain, and prices are still affected by market sentiment and capital in the short term [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - Yesterday, the alumina price remained low, and Shanghai aluminum trended strongly, rising 0.4% at night. The Sino - US reached an agreement framework in principle, with no unexpected content. The US dollar index weakened again, falling below 98.5. The ore disturbance in Guinea is unlikely to end in the short term, but there is no progress for now. The domestic and foreign ore inventories are still abundant, and the supply concern is limited. The previously reduced production capacity is gradually resuming, increasing the supply pressure. Although the demand for Shanghai aluminum is uncertain, the current inventory is at a low level, and the supply of scrap aluminum in the market has tightened further, increasing the concern about the supply of primary aluminum. Overall, the supply of alumina remains highly uncertain, but the short - term impact is weakening. The expectation of production resumption increases the supply pressure, and the price may continue to operate close to the cost line. Shanghai aluminum has clear supply constraints and low inventory, providing strong support at the bottom [4]. Nickel - The supply of nickel ore in the Philippines is gradually recovering, but there are still disturbances in the Indonesian mining end. The nickel - iron production capacity is abundant, and the supply is loose, but downstream stainless - steel plants are reducing production due to losses, putting pressure on the nickel - iron price. The intermediate product project has a cost advantage, and the production capacity and output continue to grow. The demand for nickel from the new energy sector is limited by the weakening market share of ternary batteries, and intermediate products continue to flow into the production of refined nickel. The operating rate of China's leading refined - nickel enterprises remains high, and the oversupply situation continues. The Philippines has removed the original ore export ban clause, alleviating the concern about nickel ore exports. Coupled with the expected seasonal increase in Philippine ore supply, the fundamental pressure on nickel has further increased, and the price is under downward pressure. However, on the one hand, the market had previously expected that the Philippine nickel ore ban would be difficult to implement, and on the other hand, Indonesia has a clear intention to strengthen nickel ore management, providing some support for the nickel ore price. The odds of a unilateral short - selling strategy are limited, and it is recommended to continue holding short positions in call options [4]. Lithium Carbonate - After the lithium price rebounded from an oversold level, the actual improvement in fundamentals is still limited. Policy - driven consumption growth in the terminal new - energy vehicle market, but the inventory of battery cells in the intermediate link and the production schedule of cathode enterprises have not increased significantly, and the demand transmission efficiency is not ideal. In the past two weeks, the enthusiasm of lithium salt smelters for production has been boosted, and the expectation of production reduction has continued to be disappointed. The inventory of upstream smelters is at a high level, and the loose supply situation suppresses the rebound space of the lithium price [4]. Silicon Energy - The number of operating silicon furnaces increased last week, and there is still an expected increase in the future in Yunnan and Sichuan. The downstream demand is weak, with the output of organic silicon and polysilicon remaining at a low level compared to the same period in the past two years. Technically, the July contract has not effectively broken below the 7000 - yuan integer mark and has rebounded for several consecutive days, showing signs of stopping the decline. Overall, the supply is slightly more abundant than the demand, but it is unlikely that the price will drop significantly at the current level. It is recommended to sell put options [6]. Steel and Ore Rebar - Yesterday, the spot price of rebar rebounded steadily, with prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Guangzhou increasing by 20, 10, and 10 respectively. The small - sample trading volume of construction steel decreased to 9.98 tons. The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation ended, and the official did not announce specific details or complete executable terms, leading to different market interpretations. The fundamentals of construction steel are relatively clear, with the terminal demand declining seasonally. Long - process steel mills are still profitable and reducing production slowly, while short - process steel mills in the southwest region have started to avoid peak production. It is expected that the inventory of rebar in the Steel Union sample will continue to decrease this week, but the decline rate will slow down. The raw material price is firm in the short term, but the long - term supply is expected to be loose. The rebar futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Yesterday, the spot price of hot - rolled coil increased steadily, with prices in Shanghai and Lecong increasing by 20 and 10 respectively. The spot trading was average. The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation ended, and the official did not announce specific details or complete executable terms, leading to different market interpretations. The demand for plates is relatively resilient, while the demand for construction steel is seasonally weakening. In the case of good profitability, there is no clear constraint on the supply of blast - furnace hot metal. The overall inventory reduction speed of steel products has gradually slowed down, and some plate varieties are accumulating inventory passively. The raw material price is firm in the short term, but the coal mine is still accumulating inventory passively, and the long - term supply of iron ore is expected to be loose. The hot - rolled coil futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. It is recommended to continue holding the previously recommended short positions in the hot - rolled coil 10 - contract and set a stop - loss line [6]. Iron Ore - The Sino - US second - round trade negotiation ended, and the official did not announce specific details or complete executable terms, leading to different market interpretations. The static supply - demand structure of iron ore is relatively healthy. However, the steel consumption will decline seasonally, and the domestic daily hot - metal production has reached its peak. The supply of imported iron ore is expected to increase significantly in June, mainly due to the seasonal shipping pattern of foreign mines and the new mine投产 plan. It is expected that the supply - demand structure of iron ore will shift from relatively tight to slightly loose in June. Considering that the valuation of iron ore in the black chain is relatively high and the long - term supply of iron ore is clearly in a loose pattern, it is still believed that the probability of a long - term price correction for iron ore is high. It is recommended that cautious investors continue to hold the iron ore 9 - 1 positive spread combination, and aggressive investors can patiently hold short positions in the I2601 contract and set a stop - loss line [6]. Coal and Coke Coking Coal - Due to factors such as the traditional safety production month, some coal mines in the production area have reduced production, and the marginal supply of raw coal has tightened. However, steel and coking enterprises have slowed down the production rhythm and raw material procurement due to the off - season expectation. The inventory of coking coal mines is at a historical high, and the situation of pit - mouth auctions is difficult to improve. The supply - demand imbalance is still obvious, and the coal price has returned to the downward trend [8]. Coke - The central environmental protection inspection team has entered multiple northern provinces, and there is an expectation of production restrictions on coke ovens. The terminal steel consumption has entered the off - season, and the demand fulfillment expectation is weakening. Steel mills continue to adopt a low - inventory turnover strategy for raw material procurement, and the pressure on coking plants to reduce inventory has increased. The demand decline rate is higher than the supply decline rate, and the coke price is difficult to reverse the weak situation [8]. Soda Ash and Float Glass Soda Ash - The old production line of Haihua was ignited, and the daily production of soda ash increased slightly to 10.74 tons yesterday. The demand has no bright spots, and the supply is more abundant than the weekly demand. The high inventory of soda ash plants is still difficult to digest. The inventory in the intermediate delivery warehouse decreased by 1.8 tons to 32.71 tons. The soda ash price lacks the momentum to rebound. It is recommended to patiently hold the previously recommended short positions in the soda ash 09 - contract, set a stop - loss line to lock in some profits in advance. New positions can be shorted on rallies based on the cash cost of ammonia - soda or the selling - delivery cost (1280 - 1290) [8]. Float Glass - Affected by factors such as seasonal patterns, the downward cycle of real - estate completion, and the poor sustainability of speculative demand, the demand for float glass is expected to weaken marginally in the off - season. Yesterday, the average sales - to - production ratio in the four major production areas remained at 98%. The overall supply is stable, with the weekly production basically maintaining at 110 tons. It is expected that the inventory of glass plants will decrease slightly by 10,000 heavy boxes this week, but it is difficult to digest the high inventory. Without incremental real - estate stabilization policies or further expansion of the cold - repair scale by glass plants, the glass price does not have the conditions for a bottom - reversal. For the single - side strategy, it is recommended to hold the previous short positions in the glass FG509 - contract and set a stop - loss line to lock in some profits in advance. For the combination strategy, based on the expectation that industry losses will force glass plants to carry out cold - repair, it is recommended to patiently hold a small - position long position in the glass 01 - contract and a short position in the soda ash 01 - contract (the latest spread is - 135), or the glass 9 - 1 reverse - spread strategy (the latest spread is - 60) [8]. Crude Oil - Geopolitically, US media reported that Trump has lost hope that Iran will agree to terminate all uranium - enrichment activities in the nuclear agreement. Late at night, the US announced the evacuation of personnel from the Middle East, further increasing the market's concern about a hot war in the Middle East. However, from the Sunday agenda, this evacuation is more likely to be a bargaining chip for pressure negotiation. From a rational perspective, the probability of a hot war in the Middle East is still low. Overall, the market is highly concerned about the geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and there is a risk of an unexpected sharp increase in oil prices. It is recommended to buy call options to protect existing positions [8]. Methanol - This week, the arrival volume reached 46 tons (+13 tons), a two - year high. The arrival volume in Jiangsu increased by 7 tons, and that in South China increased by 3.5 tons. As a result, the port inventory increased by 7.1 tons to 65.22 tons, showing a significant increase for the fourth consecutive week. It is expected that the monthly import volume of China will remain above 130 tons in June and July. After the spot price rebounded last week, the trading volume improved significantly, resulting in only a 2% increase in the production enterprise inventory and a 15% increase in the order backlog. However, with the operating rate approaching 90%, the production enterprise inventory will continue to accumulate under the high - production background. The supply is increasing, and the rebound height of methanol is limited [8]. Polyolefins - The Sino - US reached an agreement framework in principle, and the negotiation between the US and Iran broke down, causing the international crude oil price to rise significantly. This week, the spot trading of polyolefins improved, and downstream and mid - stream enterprises actively replenished inventory, resulting in a decrease in the production enterprise inventory. The inventory of PE decreased by 1.74%, and that of PP decreased by 3.93%, but both remained at a relatively high level this year. The social inventory did not change significantly, with PE increasing by 0.57% and PP decreasing by 4.25%, both remaining at a medium level this year. The operating rate rebounded rapidly this week, and it is expected that the production volume will return to a high level in July. Coupled with the new production capacity put into operation in the second quarter, the supply pressure will increase again, and the polyolefin price is likely to decline [10]. Cotton - In terms of supply, the growth of domestic cotton needs to pay attention to the impact of high temperatures in the short term, and the annual production is expected to decline slightly year - on - year. The weather in the US cotton - growing area is poor, and the planting area is expected to decline significantly. In terms of demand, according to a May survey by BCO on textile enterprises, the overall operating rate of enterprises rebounded slightly in May, the cotton consumption increased, and the enterprise orders were concentrated within one month. In May, most enterprises received more orders, but the order volume was still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. The downstream market was stable and improving in May, showing overall resilience. The terminal clothing consumption remained basically unchanged year - on - year, and it is still necessary to wait for the outcome of the trade negotiation. Overall, there is no clear directional negative factor in the short - term fundamentals. It is recommended to maintain the previous long - allocation strategy and wait for the clarity of the trade negotiation situation [10]. Rubber - The Sino - US negotiation has made phased progress, and the macro sentiment has eased slightly. However, the fundamentals of natural rubber are expected to maintain a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The terminal automobile market is facing an off - season test, and the inventory of finished products of tire enterprises is at a high level. The rubber - tapping progress in domestic and Southeast Asian rubber forests is smooth, and there is no negative impact on the weather conditions in the producing areas. The expectation of an increase in raw material supply is gradually being realized,