国投期货农产品日报-20250612

Report Investment Ratings - Soybeans (including domestic and imported): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The soy - related market is influenced by factors such as trade agreements, weather, and supply - demand balance. The price trend is complex and requires attention to weather changes from June to August [2][3][6]. - The domestic rapeseed market is supported by factors like the weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, Sino - Canadian trade relations, and the peak consumption season of aquatic feed, with a short - term bullish outlook [4]. - The palm oil price is affected by factors such as market position reduction, weather in the US soybean - producing areas, and the production cycle, with a need to guard against the impact of US soybean weather speculation [6]. - The corn market is affected by factors such as the wheat purchase plan and trade agreements, showing a short - term volatile trend [7]. - The live pig market has short - term downward pressure on spot prices and medium - term support for far - end prices due to policy adjustments [8]. - The egg market is in a downward trend, with the current price not reaching the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to multiple influencing factors [9]. Summary by Categories Soybeans - Domestic soybean prices are affected by import prices and weather. The key months of 7 - 8 during the growth period face risks of high temperature and low precipitation, and weather is expected to be the main driver of price fluctuations [2]. - After the Sino - US London trade meeting, the soybean meal market is in a wide - range shock. The supply of domestic soybeans is relatively abundant, but the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans has increased, and the market should be treated as volatile, with attention to weather - driven price increases from June to August [3]. Rapeseed - The rapeseed market is affected by the short - term positive signals of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the weather in Canadian rapeseed - producing areas, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. Coupled with the peak consumption season of aquatic feed, the domestic rapeseed futures price has short - term support, and the strategy is bullish [4]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - The palm oil price has stabilized. The European Meteorological Center's forecast shows that the US soybean - producing areas may face high temperature and low precipitation in 7 - 8. Palm oil is in the production - increasing period in the second and third quarters, and price fluctuations are expected, with a need to guard against the impact of US soybean weather speculation [6]. Corn - The launch of the wheat minimum purchase price plan in Henan has driven the bullish sentiment of corn. After the continuous rise of corn futures, the trend has eased. The future wheat - corn price difference may widen, and the corn futures may continue to fluctuate in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded, and the spot price was slightly adjusted. In the short term, there is downward pressure on the spot price due to the accelerated slaughter of group farms. In the medium term, policy adjustments will reduce the long - term supply pressure and support the far - end price [8]. Eggs - The egg futures continued to increase positions and hit new lows, and the spot price continued to decline in most areas. The current egg price has not reached the cyclical bottom, and attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity changes, chicken culling sentiment, and the rainy season [9].