冠通每日交易策略-20250612

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Expect crude oil supply and demand to improve in the near term, with prices oscillating strongly due to rising geopolitical risks, but the upward price space is limited due to OPEC+ long - term production increase and trade - war - dragged demand, so it's advisable to operate cautiously and wait and see [3] - Forecast that the decline of coking coal price may slow down as supply pressure eases slightly, but the current supply - strong and demand - weak situation remains a negative factor for the market [5] - Predict that copper prices have support below due to the rising Fed rate - cut expectation, but weak demand restricts price increase, so there's no need to be overly bearish on the market [10] - Anticipate that the lithium carbonate market will mainly decline under the loose fundamentals, although the previous price rebounded due to improved macro - sentiment [11][12] - Project that urea will continue to decline, but there may be a limited - height rebound at the low level, depending on export and agricultural demand [13] - Forecast that asphalt will oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it's recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [14][15] - Expect PP to oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure but improved commodity sentiment [16] - Predict that plastic will oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure but improved overall commodity sentiment [17][18] - Anticipate that PVC will oscillate at a low level, with high supply and weak demand, but improved commodity sentiment [19] - Forecast that soybean oil futures will oscillate weakly in the short term due to supply uncertainty and inventory build - up [20][21] - Predict that domestic soybean meal will run strongly, and it's advisable to go long on far - month soybean meal at low prices [22] - Anticipate that rebar prices will be suppressed in the short term due to sufficient supply, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction [23][24] - Forecast that hot - rolled coils will face downward pressure in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may improve as production cuts and policies take effect [25][27] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July; U.S. drilling number drops, and production is expected to decline; Canadian wildfires halt 350,000 barrels per day of heavy - oil production; EIA raises 2025 global oil inventory increase forecast from 0.4 to 0.8 barrels per day [3] - Demand: U.S. economic data is better than expected, and the market risk preference rebounds, but the pessimistic expectation of the trade - war's impact on the economy persists, and refined - oil demand and inventory data are poor [3] - Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the near term, but the upward space is limited [3] Coking Coal - Supply: Mongolian coal customs clearance is normal, but domestic mine and coal - washing plant output has declined for weeks, and the total upstream inventory is at a high level [5] - Demand: Coking enterprises have low profits and weak procurement willingness, and the coke inventory is high; steel mill production may decline slightly, and terminal demand is weak [5] - Outlook: The decline may slow down, and it's in a narrow - range oscillation [5] Copper - Supply: Concentrated copper ore port inventory has decreased significantly, and the supply of copper raw materials is tight; smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses [10] - Demand: China's copper imports have decreased, and domestic demand has weakened; downstream copper product industries' operating rates have declined [10] - Outlook: Copper prices have support below due to the Fed rate - cut expectation, but weak demand restricts the increase [10] Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Supply recovery is accelerating, with increased mica production, resumed factory production, and stable overseas output, and inventory is at a high level [11] - Demand: The terminal market is enthusiastic, but the direct downstream battery sector purchases as needed, and the supporting effect is limited [11] - Outlook: The market will mainly decline under loose fundamentals [11][12] Urea - Supply: Daily production remains high, restricting the upward space of the market [13] - Demand: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and downstream inventory removal has stagnated; the melamine operating rate is declining [13] - Outlook: It will continue to decline but may rebound at a low level, and the rebound height depends on exports and agricultural demand [13] Asphalt - Supply: Last week's operating rate increased by 3.6 percentage points to 31.3%, and the June refinery production plan is to increase [14] - Demand: Downstream road - asphalt operating rate decreased to 25.6%, and overall demand is affected by funds [14] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it's recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14][15] PP - Supply: Downstream operating rate decreased to 50.01%, and enterprise operating rate decreased to 84%; new production capacity is put into operation, and inventory pressure is high [16] - Demand: U.S. tariffs and propane import restrictions affect downstream exports and raw - material supply; downstream recovery is slow [16] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [16] Plastic - Supply: Operating rate increased to 86.5%, and new production capacity has been put into operation; inventory is at a high level [17][18] - Demand: Downstream operating rate decreased to 39.14%, and demand is weak in the off - season; new orders are limited [17][18] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [17][18] PVC - Supply: Operating rate increased to 78.19%, and supply is relatively high; social inventory is still high [19] - Demand: Downstream operating rate has declined slightly, and demand is weak; Indian policies and the real - estate market affect exports and domestic demand [19] - Outlook: It will oscillate at a low level, but commodity sentiment has improved [19] Soybean Oil - Supply: U.S. soybean growing conditions are good, and domestic soybean crushing volume is at a high level, and inventory is increasing [20][21] - Demand: There's no clear macro - guidance, and the market is worried about future supply [20][21] - Outlook: Futures will oscillate weakly in the short term [20][21] Soybean Meal - Supply: U.S. soybean sowing is almost finished, and domestic soybean inventory and crushing volume have increased; meal inventory has increased [22] - Demand: There's no clear macro - guidance, and the market is worried about future supply [22] - Outlook: The domestic market will run strongly, and it's advisable to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [22] Rebar - Supply: Weekly production decreased by 5.24% to 207.57 tons due to environmental protection and maintenance, but overall supply is still sufficient [23][24] - Demand: New construction projects and infrastructure progress are slow, and demand is in the off - season; inventory removal is slow [24] - Outlook: Prices will be suppressed in the short term [24] Hot - Rolled Coils - Supply: Weekly production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.65 tons, but the total output is at a high level, and supply pressure persists [25] - Demand: Downstream manufacturing demand is divided, and overall demand is weak; inventory is rising [25] - Outlook: It will face downward pressure in the short term, but the supply - demand pattern may improve [25][27]