国投期货化工日报-20250612

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: No clear rating [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear multi/short trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short fiber: No clear rating [1] - Bottle chips: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: No clear rating [1] - Caustic soda: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards a long/short trend, with a driving force for price increase/decrease but poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Glass: No clear rating [1] - Soda ash: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The chemical market shows diverse trends, with some products facing supply - demand imbalances, price fluctuations, and inventory changes [2][3][4] - Different factors such as import volume, downstream demand, policy, and production capacity affect the prices and market trends of various chemical products [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The intraday methanol futures opened high and closed low. High import volume, a slight decline in coastal olefin plant operating rates, and large port inventory accumulation. Domestic supply is sufficient, with increased loads in acetic acid and hydrocarbon plants and slightly more producer inventories. Policy may delay port inventory accumulation, and short - term prices will range - bound [2] Urea - Urea futures continued to decline. Agricultural demand has partially started but is scattered, and the production of compound fertilizer's summer high - nitrogen fertilizer is ending. Producers' inventory is increasing significantly, and although exports are gradually liberalized, the inspection process is slow. With sufficient supply and weak downstream demand, prices remain weak [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures contracts fluctuated narrowly. For polyethylene, weak fundamentals and lower - than - expected demand led to a lackluster market. For polypropylene, new device startups and restarted maintenance devices increased supply pressure, and high - temperature weather reduced downstream demand [4] Styrene - Styrene futures fluctuated narrowly. The cost of pure benzene has limited driving force, and the supply is expected to increase with device restarts, while downstream "Three S" operations are also expected to improve [5] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rose in the morning due to oil prices but then fell back. The industry shows increased upstream production and weakened demand, with PTA inventory accumulation expected. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand situation is weakening, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Short - fiber prices followed raw materials, and bottle chips may face inventory pressure and potential production cuts [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuated narrowly. Supply pressure increased in June, exports entered the off - season, and domestic demand was weak, with potential inventory accumulation. Caustic soda prices fell, with high supply due to less maintenance and new capacity, and high - pressure inventory [7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass inventory is high, and prices are weak. Cold repairs and startups coexist, and orders are weak. Soda ash continues to accumulate inventory, with high supply and falling costs. Supply pressure remains, and a high - level short - selling strategy is recommended [8]