Group 1 - The oil price is expected to remain in a neutral range, with Brent crude oil projected to be between $55 and $70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, indicating limited downside potential [4][10][11] - Global GDP growth is forecasted at 2.8%, leading to stable but slightly slowing growth in oil demand, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and trade policies [4][12] - Non-OPEC countries are expected to lead the increase in crude oil production, while OPEC+ may exceed production expectations, contributing to a significant supply increase [4][12][15] Group 2 - Refining profitability is anticipated to improve due to a decline in domestic refining rates and the exit of overseas refineries, despite ongoing supply pressures [5][79] - The refining sector is nearing the end of new capacity additions, with most projects expected to come online between 2025 and 2026, which may alleviate some supply-side pressures [5][74] - The cost structure in the refining and petrochemical sectors is expected to improve, providing a better margin outlook for key players [5][79] Group 3 - The polyester industry is seeing a slowdown in capital expenditure growth, which may lead to an improved market structure as supply and demand dynamics stabilize [6][74] - The production capacity for polyester bottle chips is nearing completion, with expectations for a rebound in the industry by the second half of 2025 [6][74] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [7][74] - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for the polyester sector remains positive, with a focus on leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [7][74]
2025下半年石油石化行业投资策略：油价回归中性区间，拥抱景气改善的投资机会
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-06-12 14:14