地方政府债供给及交易跟踪：寻找高换手率地方债

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the local bond stock reaching 51.1 trillion yuan as of June 6, 2025 [11]. - The issuance of local government bonds last week totaled 10.9594 billion yuan, including 4.084 billion yuan of new special bonds and 3.3536 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [19]. - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been on a continuous downward trend [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of June 6, 2025, the local bond stock reached 51.1 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization were 1.96 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [11]. - As of June 6, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock, with balances of 3.4 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.08 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had stock balances above 2 trillion yuan [11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 10.9594 billion yuan were issued, including 4.084 billion yuan of new special bonds and 3.3536 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [19]. - As of June 6, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in June had reached 5.4394 billion yuan, accounting for 25.02% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [19]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of local bonds with a term of 7 years or less last week had a relatively high proportion, reaching 39.77%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 21.89BP, and that of 20 - year local bonds widened to 13.9BP [28]. - From a new - bond subscription perspective, the upper limit of the bid rate last week decreased slightly compared to two weeks ago, and the primary bidding sentiment improved [28]. - Last week, 6 provinces had new issuances. Tianjin had the largest new local bond issuance this month, amounting to 4.3427 billion yuan, with terms mainly concentrated in 10 - 20 years and 20 - 30 years. The terms of other provinces were mainly concentrated in 7 years or less and 7 - 10 years. Except for Tianjin, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - As of June 6, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.87%, and the spread with the same - term treasury bonds was 21.53BP, at the 68.4% quantile in the past 24 years. The price difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 76.1% and 84.3% respectively [37]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for each major term decreased. The 10 - year - plus variety had the highest weekly turnover rate, at 0.85%. Shandong, Sichuan, Guangdong, and Jiangsu had more trading volumes last week, all exceeding 100 transactions [44]. - Last week, the average trading term of local bonds was 14 years, and the average yield was 1.91% [44]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 23.291 billion yuan, of which the purchase of 20 - 30 - year - plus varieties accounted for 64.2%. In addition, securities companies had a net purchase of 12.069 billion yuan, and wealth management products had a net purchase of 3.422 billion yuan [49].