美债仍有上行压力？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the 10Y US Treasury yield still faces significant upward risks in the second half of the year. It is expected to continue oscillating around the current range of 4.2–4.6%, with a risk of further upward movement in the third quarter. Against the backdrop of the decline in US Treasury credit, the term spread will continue to widen, and the yield curve will become steeper [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Year's US Treasury Trend Review - Since April, the US Treasury yield has experienced two rapid upward movements. Trump's tenure can be divided into four stages: from February to March, recession expectations led to a downward trend in yields; in April, tariffs caused a sharp decline; in May, Moody's downgrade and the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" led to another drop; since late May, concerns have eased, and yields have slightly declined [10][11]. - In the long - term, the US Treasury seems to have reached an inflection point. The term premium has been rising since the second half of 2023, reflecting concerns about the US fiscal problems and trade policy uncertainties. The historical positive correlation between the copper - gold ratio and the 10Y US Treasury yield has disappeared, indicating a re - pricing of the US Treasury's safe - haven attribute [12][15]. 3.2 Three Upward Risks of US Treasuries 3.2.1 Uncertainty of Trump's Spending Bill - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" may be signed into law in the second half of the year. If it is implemented in August, the Treasury will issue bonds to replenish funds, and if the spending scale exceeds expectations, it may exacerbate deficit concerns, pushing up the term spread [18][21]. 3.2.2 Shaking Market Confidence in US Treasury Credit - The US fiscal debt - servicing burden is increasing. The post - pandemic deficit rate has remained high, with a central level of 6.4% from 2022 to the present, significantly higher than the pre - pandemic level. The CBO predicts that the public debt - to - GDP ratio will reach 118% by 2035 [23][26]. - The "de - dollarization" process is accelerating. The proportion of overseas holders of US Treasuries has decreased to 32.6% at the end of 2024, while the proportion of gold in official reserves has increased from 5.7% in 2013 to 12.8% in 2024 [33]. 3.2.3 Increased Fragility of the US Treasury Market Structure - The "basis trading" strategy of hedge funds has increased the vulnerability of the US Treasury market. Since 2022, the "short" positions of hedge funds in the US Treasury futures market have significantly increased [37]. - The continuous rise in Japanese government bond yields may lead to a reduction in Japanese investors' purchases of US Treasuries. As Japan exits its ultra - loose monetary policy, the attractiveness of the "carry trade" has decreased, reducing the demand for US dollar assets [38][40]. 3.3 Outlook for US Treasuries in the Second Half of the Year - In the third quarter, the core factors are tariffs and fiscal bills. Attention should be paid to whether the reciprocal tariffs will be implemented after July 9th. The bipartisan game on the fiscal bill may enter the final stage in August, and attention should be paid to whether the fiscal expenditure scale exceeds expectations and the impact of the Treasury's bond issuance on the term spread [42]. - In the fourth quarter, the core factor is the Fed's decision. Maintaining high interest rates to control inflation is more important than cutting rates to prevent recession. The Fed may cut rates 1 - 2 times this year, but it is not enough to drive down long - term interest rates significantly [46].