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中东紧张局势陡然升温
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-13 00:41
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising rapidly, with Trump indicating that Israel may attack Iran, which will lead to a short - term weakening of the US dollar index and a strong rise in gold prices [2][3][16][20]. - The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the initial jobless claims and May PPI being weaker than expected, which affects the performance of various financial and commodity markets [15][16][23][24]. - Different commodity markets have different trends. For example, the soybean meal in the agricultural product market is relatively strong but is expected to fluctuate around 3000; the sugar market is expected to be weak due to the expected increase in Brazilian sugar production; the coal price in the black metal market may experience a second dip; and the silicon material market in the non - ferrous metal market is facing price decline risks [30][36][39][50]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump said that Israel's attack on Iran is "very likely", and the US economic data is weak. The initial jobless claims and May PPI are weaker than expected. Gold prices are expected to be strong with increased volatility [14][15][16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump's statement that Israel may attack Iran accelerates the rise of geopolitical risks, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to weaken in the short term [19][20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US imposes tariffs on steel - made household appliances, and the unemployment benefit application data is weak. The US stock market is still in a volatile situation, and it is not recommended to chase high [22][23][25]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 1193 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The long - term bonds lack the driving force to break through directly. The market is expected to be volatile in the near future, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [26][27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raise the soybean production forecasts of Brazil and Argentina respectively. The domestic soybean meal is stronger than the external market but is expected to fluctuate around 3000 [28][29][30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The Trump administration is expected to propose a biodiesel quota lower than 5.25 billion gallons. Investors holding long positions are advised to exit [31][33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The market expects an increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of May. The domestic sugar market is expected to be weak, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be weak with fluctuations [36][37]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal price in the northern port market is temporarily stable, but it may experience a second dip due to factors such as weak power consumption demand [38][39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Roy Hill and Atlas Iron plan to merge. The iron ore price is expected to decline slightly with the weakening of terminal demand, but the decline will be gentle [40]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The short - to medium - term pig price may be pessimistic, but the supply pressure may ease in the third to fourth quarter. It is recommended to wait and see [42][43]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products has decreased, but the performance of building materials and coils is differentiated. The steel price is expected to be weak with fluctuations [44]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve. The CS07 - C07 is expected to be in low - level fluctuation [46]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn inventory of major processing enterprises has decreased, and the corn inventory is tightening. The 09 contract is expected to be strong first and then weak, with fluctuations [47][48]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The price of N - type silicon wafers has slightly decreased. The spot market is bearish in the short term, but the price decline may stimulate silicon material manufacturers to cut production. A short - term short and long - term long strategy is considered [49][50][51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some silicon plants in Sichuan have resumed production, and the demand is still weak. The disk price is expected to be in low - level fluctuation, and shorting on rebounds can be considered [53]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The short - term fundamental support exists, and it is recommended to wait and see. Options can be used to replace futures positions, and shorting on rebounds can be considered in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The inventory pressure in June has been significantly relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price has oscillated upwards, and the supply is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to medium - term long - buying opportunities [59][60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price has fluctuated widely, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be strong in supply and weak in demand. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to the arrival situation in Shanghai [63][64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The spot price has limited upward momentum, and the disk is expected to be weak with fluctuations [66][67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The National Energy Administration organizes hydrogen energy pilot projects. The CEA is expected to be volatile in the short term [68][70]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. It is recommended to wait and see [71][72]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The demand for PTA is in the off - season, and the supply has increased. The short - term price faces pressure, and long - term long positions can be considered on dips [73][74]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The 09 contract of caustic soda is affected by the overall weakness of commodities, but the large discount on the disk will limit the downward space [75][77]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has continued to decline. The disk is expected to be volatile [78][79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC has slightly increased, and the disk is expected to be volatile [80][81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The pre - sales of urea production enterprises have decreased. The urea price is expected to be weak in the long term, and attention can be paid to the possibility of policy relaxation [80][82]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The supply pressure of bottle chips is large, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to build long positions on dips to expand the processing fee [85]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price has declined significantly, and the market is in weak and stable adjustment. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium term [86]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price has slightly decreased. The demand will decline seasonally, and the price is expected to be weak [87][88].