银河期货天然橡胶及20号胶每日早盘观察-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions, important news, logical factors, and proposes corresponding trading strategies for natural rubber (RU), 20 - number rubber (NR), and butadiene rubber (BR). It takes into account various factors such as tire production line operating rates, inventory levels, international trade data, and global economic indicators to assess the market trends of different rubber varieties and provides investment suggestions accordingly. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - RU Natural Rubber: The price of the RU main 09 contract fluctuated during the period from May 20 to June 13, 2025, with the price range from 13405 to 14945 points. The prices of related products such as WF, Vietnam 3L blend, Thai smoked sheets, and local standard - two also showed corresponding fluctuations [1][11][15]. - NR 20 - number Rubber: The NR main 07/08 contract price also fluctuated, and the prices of related products such as smoked sheet rubber cargoes, Thai standard near - port cargoes, and Thai blend near - port cargoes had different changes [1][11][15]. - BR Butadiene Rubber: The price of the BR main 07/08 contract fluctuated, and the prices of related products such as Shandong - area Daqing Petrochemical cis - butadiene, Shandong private cis - butadiene, and East China market Yangzi Petrochemical cis - butadiene also changed accordingly [2][7][12]. Important News - Automobile Market: In May 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume reached 1.932 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May, the cumulative retail volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%. In May 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2]. - Rubber Trade: From January to April 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and compound rubber were 1.573 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the total exports to China were 1.005 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and compound rubber were 586,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the total exports to China were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 282% [24][49]. Logical Analysis - Tire Production: The operating rates of domestic all - steel and semi - steel tire production lines showed different trends, with changes in inventory levels. For example, in June 2025, the operating rate of the domestic all - steel tire production line was 61.2%, a year - on - year increase of 16.6%, and the operating rate of the semi - steel tire production line was 78.0%, a year - on - year increase of 3.0% [3]. - Inventory: The inventory levels of domestic bonded areas and production enterprises had different trends. For example, in April 2025, the inventory of domestic large - scale enterprises' finished products increased by 3.9% year - on - year, and the inventory of Qingdao Bonded Area had both increases and decreases [3][16]. - Climate and Other Factors: The El Niño index and other climate - related factors had an impact on the rubber market. For example, in April 2025, the El Niño index was - 0.1°C, and its 5 - month average decreased by 1.8°C year - on - year, which was negative for the RU single - side [8]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: For the RU main 09 contract, there were suggestions of holding long positions, holding short positions, and waiting and seeing at different times. For the NR main 07/08 contract, there were also corresponding strategies such as holding long positions, holding short positions, and waiting and seeing [3][8][13]. - Arbitrage: For combinations such as RU2509 - NR2509 and 2RU2509 - 5SP2509, there were suggestions of holding positions and setting stop - losses [3][8][13]. - Options: Generally, the suggestion was to wait and see [3][8][13].