股市建议观望，债市?盈情绪升温

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock Index Futures: The cost - effectiveness of chasing the rise is not high. Although the stock market may have structural opportunities in the second half of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index is currently fluctuating around 3400, and it is advisable to wait for better layout opportunities [1][5]. - Stock Index Options: Use options for hedging and defense. The market turnover of options has declined by 21.50%, and the implied volatility has risen. It is recommended to continue holding put options for short - term hedging [1][5]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The profit - taking sentiment is rising. Although the short - term liquidity environment may be relatively stable, the long - end may be in a volatile state, and the short - end may be slightly stronger [2][5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Views - Stock Index Futures - Data: The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM current - month contracts are - 8.60, - 9.08, - 19.93, - 35.42 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 7.23, 0.66, 11.81, 7.09 points; the spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 42.0, 36.2, 79.6, 97.0 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 2.6, 3.8, 6.0, 4.2 points; the total positions change by - 15578, - 1138, - 2651, 2007 hands respectively [5]. - Logic: The equity market was mainly volatile yesterday, and the offshore Hong Kong stock market adjusted. The AH premium is at a low level, and the poor performance of popular stocks affected market sentiment. The index shows strong resistance to decline, but short - term chasing the rise is not cost - effective [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see [5]. - Stock Index Options - Logic: The equity market was slightly stronger in a volatile manner yesterday. The option market turnover declined by 21.50%. The high trading volume on Tuesday was due to intraday volatility and hedging needs, not new capital inflows. After two consecutive days of narrowing liquidity, the market is still in a volatile state [1][5]. - Operation Suggestion: Continue to hold put options for hedging and defense [5]. - Treasury Bond Futures - Data: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL next - quarter contracts are 47942, 47953, 25053, 62753 hands respectively, with a one - day change of - 12693, - 2506, - 10233, - 12885 hands; the positions are 188181, 150785, 118548, 106051 hands respectively, with a one - day change of 823, - 60, - 555, 901 hands [5]. - Logic: Treasury bond futures showed mixed performance yesterday. The T main contract opened high and closed low, with a significant decline in positions, indicating strong profit - taking sentiment. The spot bond market lacks incremental information, the capital is tight, and most bond varieties have corrected under the influence of profit - taking [2][5]. - Operation Suggestion: For trend strategies, it may be volatile in the short term, and the short - end may be stronger; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [6]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides the economic data of China and the United States from June 9th to June 13th, including China's May PPI, CPI, export and import annual rates, M2, M0, M1 money supply annual rates, and the United States' May CPI, core CPI, PPI annual rates, and the initial value of the June Michigan Consumer Confidence Index [7]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - On June 12th, Ant International responded to the news of applying for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong and Singapore, stating that it is accelerating investment and cooperation in global treasury management [8]. - The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen to Deepen Reform and Innovation and Expand Opening - up", with officials from relevant departments making statements on various aspects such as cross - listing, capital cultivation, and industrial development [8]. - The central bank and the foreign exchange administration jointly issued measures to support Fujian in exploring new ways for cross - strait integration and building a cross - strait integration development demonstration area, including cross - border trade and investment facilitation and financial supervision [8]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data content is not provided in the given text [9][13][25].