镍、不锈钢：当前价格接近支撑线，基本面仍然承压

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current price of nickel and stainless steel is close to the support line, and the fundamentals remain under pressure. The short - term support for Philippine nickel ore still exists, but high - priced ore and weak demand are squeezing the profits of the intermediate links. The price of ferronickel is still on a downward trend, and there is no obvious production reduction trend for high - grade nickel matte. The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, and the destocking is slow. The demand recovery of nickel salts in the new energy chain is slow, and the current situation is still based on sales - driven production. Attention should be paid to spot transaction volume and macro - news for future trends [1][3] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include some stainless steel plants announcing production cuts, cost - side support from nickel ore prices, and the resumption of price limits by Tsingshan. Negative factors include slow destocking of stainless steel inventory and the entry of stainless steel into the traditional off - season [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategy - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product sales price decline and inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price decline risks, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Selling call options with a 50% hedging ratio is also an option. For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs, and the hedging ratio is based on the procurement plan. Other strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options [2] 2. Market Analysis of Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel Market: The short - term support for Philippine nickel ore exists, but it is difficult to directly boost the nickel price. The price of ferronickel is still falling, and the profitability of high - grade nickel matte is under pressure. The short - term contradiction remains due to weak upstream and downstream procurement [3] - Stainless Steel Market: The demand for stainless steel is sluggish in the off - season, some traders are selling at discounted prices, and the destocking is slow. After Tsingshan's price limit regulation, the price has a stabilizing trend [3] 3. Market Data - Nickel Disk Data: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of Shanghai nickel continuous contracts 1 - 3 and LME nickel 3M all decreased, with a decline of about 1.48%. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 0.34%. The basis of the main contract increased by 29.7% [5] - Stainless Steel Disk Data: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,585 yuan/ton, with a 0% change. The prices of stainless steel continuous contracts 1 - 3 decreased slightly. The trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, the warehouse receipt decreased by 0.27%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 6.56% [6] - Nickel Industry Inventory: Domestic social nickel inventory decreased by 2,178 tons to 39,375 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 126 tons to 197,634 tons, stainless steel social inventory increased by 15.8 tons to 983.3 tons, and ferronickel inventory increased by 1,907.5 tons to 31,462 tons [7]