工业硅：以空配思路为主，多晶硅：现货弱势，盘面具下行驱动

Report Investment Rating - The investment approach for industrial silicon is mainly short - position allocation, and the spot price of polysilicon is weak with a downward driving force in the futures market [1] Core View - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions an Iraqi solar power project and the trend strength of both products [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: For industrial silicon, Si2507's closing price is 7,455 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume is 309,628 lots, a decrease of 190,329 lots compared to T - 1. The open interest is 121,504 lots, a decrease of 25,532 lots compared to T - 1. For polysilicon, PS2507's closing price is 33,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan compared to T - 1. Its trading volume is 65,591 lots, a decrease of 14,270 lots compared to T - 1, and the open interest is 61,698 lots, an increase of 1,499 lots compared to T - 1 [1] - Basis: The spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +670 yuan/ton, compared to 65 yuan/ton in T - 1. The spot premium of polysilicon (against N - type re - feeding) is - 690 yuan/ton, compared to - 390 yuan/ton in T - 1 [1] - Price: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 is 9,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feeding material is 36,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - Profit: The profit of silicon plants (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 3,771 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan compared to T - 1. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 5.0 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan compared to T - 1 [1] - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 57.2 million tons, a decrease of 1.5 million tons compared to T - 5. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 27.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 million tons compared to T - 5 [1] - Raw Material Cost: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to T - 5. The price of Xinjiang washed coking coal is 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 5 [1] Macro and Industry News - Iraq's Ministry of Electricity is negotiating with Saudi ACWA Power and UAE Masdar to build solar power plants in Iraq, with a total planned project capacity of 2GW. This cooperation will help Iraq achieve its renewable energy target in the "2030 Energy Strategy" and reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuels [1][3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is also - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [3]