棉花：关注下游开机和原料需求

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton market is affected by multiple factors including domestic demand, international supply - demand changes; domestic cotton spot trading is cold, and the US cotton market shows fluctuations due to supply - demand adjustments [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 13,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session decline of 0.63%; CY2509 closed at 19,770 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.10% and a night - session decline of 0.35%; ICE US cotton 12 closed at 67.53 cents/pound with a daily decline of 0.25%. Trading volume and open interest of CF2509 decreased, while CY2509's open interest increased [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 25 to 10,769, and effective forecasts increased by 14 to 364; cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 2, and effective forecasts increased by 2 to 2 [1] - Spot Price Data: Domestic spot prices showed different trends, with some regions rising and some falling. For example, Shandong's price rose by 54 yuan/ton (0.36%), and Hebei's price rose by 59 yuan/ton (0.40%), while the international cotton index M decreased by 0.08% [1] - Spread Data: CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton; the spread between northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Overall trading was cold, spinners' purchasing willingness was weak, and sales basis was firm. Different regions had different basis quotes, such as 2024/25 southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 mostly quoted at CF09 + 1100 - 1300 [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: Spinners raised yarn prices by 200 - 300 yuan, but sales followed slowly. In the traditional off - season, fabric mills replenished stocks on a need - to - basis, and traders' speculative demand was insufficient. Spinners' operating rates continued to decline, and market confidence was low [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton 12 first fell and then rose. Due to poor weekly sales data, it once hit a one - and - a - half - month low. After the USDA released the June supply - demand report, it rebounded as the USDA lowered the 2025/26 US cotton production forecast to 14 million bales (from 14.5 million bales in the May report) and raised the 2024/25 US cotton exports to 11.5 million bales (from 11.1 million bales in the May report), reducing the 2025/26 ending stocks to 4.3 million bales [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]