生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the pig market is weak with fluctuations. The supply of pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices, and it is difficult to support a significant increase. If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. However, the 09 contract price is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On June 12, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 750 lots. The LH2507 contract is mainly focused on spot-futures convergence and delivery games, while the far-month contracts are fluctuating weakly due to the decline in spot prices and the expected increase in subsequent slaughter volume. The main contract (LH2509) added 2,093 lots today, with a position of approximately 79,500 lots, a maximum price of 13,770 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 13,540 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13,750 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase month by month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, the first half of the year is the off-season, while the second half is the peak season. Historically and currently, the fat-to-standard price difference may fluctuate and adjust. The bearish logic in the market includes slow weight reduction in the breeding sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for pig prices in the second and third quarters. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong resilience of spot prices, and the limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume along with the approaching peak consumption season in the third and fourth quarters [3]. 3. Strategy Suggestions - The view is weak with fluctuations. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, and there is no basis for a significant increase in pig prices. The demand in the second and third quarters provides weak support for pig prices. If there is a concentrated and substantial weight reduction in June and July, pig prices may hit new lows. Although there is a possibility of new lows in spot prices, the uncertainty is high, and the current weight reduction is actually beneficial to the 09 contract. Therefore, the price of the 09 contract is currently in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 4. Market Overview - On June 12, the national average live pig slaughter price was 14.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg or 0.07% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 14.07 yuan/kg and 13.91 yuan/kg respectively, with Henan decreasing by 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.35% and Sichuan remaining unchanged. Among the futures contracts, the prices of the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts were 13,610 yuan/ton, 12,770 yuan/ton, 12,990 yuan/ton, 13,220 yuan/ton, 13,750 yuan/ton, and 13,390 yuan/ton respectively, with the 09 contract increasing by 150 yuan/ton or 1.1%. The main basis in Henan was 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 38.46% from the previous day [6]. 5. Key Data Tracking - Data on the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts are provided, with the data source being Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].