Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current Sino - US talks results lack detailed reports, causing the market to fluctuate with unconfirmed news. Fundamentally, the traditional off - season has arrived, leading to a weakening of some steel demand. However, steel mills maintain production through variety switching due to decent orders and profits. The raw material supply remains abundant, so the fundamental drive for a market rebound is weak. Market macro - sentiment fluctuations may cause the market to oscillate, and the pressure of a weakening off - season fundamental situation is gradually emerging [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for rebar is 2800 - 3100 with a current volatility of 11.25% and a volatility percentile of 14.0%. For hot - rolled coils, it is 2900 - 3200 with a current volatility of 11.37% and a volatility percentile of 9.74% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - High finished - product inventory: To prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures according to their inventory. For example, sell RB2510 with a 40% hedging ratio at 3000 - 3100 and HC2510 with a 40% ratio at 3120 - 3200. Also, sell call options like RB2510C3200 with a 50% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [1]. - Low procurement inventory: To avoid rising procurement costs, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures. For instance, buy RB2510 with a 20% ratio at 2850 - 2920 and 2950 - 3030. Sell put options such as RB2510P2700 with a 20% ratio at 30 - 40 to reduce procurement costs [1]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - Positive factors: Total steel inventory is not high, and there are no obvious signs of a significant reduction in hot metal production [3]. - Negative factors: The recent rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou has decreased significantly; hot - rolled coils have accumulated inventory in many places; steel mills plan a fourth round of coke price cuts; iron ore shipments have increased in the past two weeks; and coal mine inventories remain high [4][5]. 3.4 Price Data - Futures prices: On June 13, 2025, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts showed little daily change but some weekly changes. For example, the rebar 10 - contract closing price was 2968, unchanged daily but down 7 weekly [5]. - Spot prices: On June 12, 2025, the rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions had various daily and weekly changes. For example, the Shanghai rebar summary price was 3090, down 20 daily and 10 weekly [5]. 3.5 Other Data - Hot - rolled coil overseas data: The FOB export prices and CFR import prices of hot - rolled coils in different countries had different weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the Japanese FOB export price dropped from 510 to 495 [6]. - Basis data: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils in Shanghai showed certain daily and weekly changes on June 12, 2025. For example, the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 128, up 3 daily and down 21 weekly [6]. - Spread data: The month - spreads, roll - rebar spreads, rebar - iron ore ratios, and rebar - coke ratios of rebar and hot - rolled coils had different changes on June 13, 2025. For example, the 01 roll - rebar spread was 117, down 7 weekly [7][8][9].
螺纹钢、热卷产业?险管理?报
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-13 01:41