铝锭库存持续下滑，铝棒存在累库预期

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Neutral [4] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [4] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum has slightly declined, the LME premium is still strengthening, and the domestic inter - month spread remains strong. Consumption is still strong, but its sustainability needs attention as China is about to enter the traditional consumption off - season and overseas demand may decline marginally. [3] - In the alumina market, the industry profit is good, new capacity has been put into production, and production resumption is underway. Although the ore price has short - term support, the expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged. [3] - The supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum in the aluminum alloy market is still tight, and the price is firm. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Aluminum Spot - On June 12, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,650 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Yangtze River A00 aluminum spot premium dropped 10 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. The Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,590 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,480 yuan/ton, and its spot premium dropped 20 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum Futures - On June 12, 2025, the main Shanghai aluminum contract opened at 20,230 yuan/ton, closed at 20,395 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton (1.12%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 169,366 lots, down 29,277 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 206,884 lots, up 12,256 lots. [1] Aluminum Inventory - As of June 12, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 460,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 355,600 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous day. [1] Alumina Spot - On June 12, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,265 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,255 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,285 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On June 12, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,890 yuan/ton, closed at 2,895 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.1%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 332,257 lots, up 4,626 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 295,060 lots, up 1,966 lots. [2] Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - The spot premium has slightly declined, the LME premium is still strengthening, and the domestic inter - month spread remains strong. Rio Tinto's Tomago faces a shutdown crisis due to energy prices. Consumption is still strong, but its sustainability needs attention as China is about to enter the traditional consumption off - season and overseas demand may decline marginally. [3] Alumina - In the spot market, 1,000 tons were traded at 3,180 yuan/ton in Henan. The industry profit is good, with 4.8 million tons of new capacity in East China put into production and production resumption in progress. The alumina supply surplus expectation remains unchanged. [3] Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum and primary aluminum is still tight, and the price is firm. The Baotai quotation was stable at 19,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the AD2511 - AL2511 contract spread was - 495 yuan/ton. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Cautiously Bearish; Aluminum Alloy: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Shanghai aluminum positive arbitrage [4]