锡：紧现实弱预期

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a situation of "tight reality and weak expectations" for tin in 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 265,150 with a daily decline of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 264,180 with a decline of 0.18%. The closing price of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 32,560 with a decline of 0.06%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 17,972 to 51,029, and the position decreased by 523 to 25,639. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 to 180, and the position increased by 53 to 13,988 [2]. - Inventory Data: The futures inventory of Shanghai Tin increased by 32 to 6,842, and that of LME Tin remained unchanged at 2,365. The cancellation warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2]. - Spot and Price Difference Data: The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 500 to 265,300, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price decreased by 500 to 265,100. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread decreased by 84 to - 79. The spot - to - futures main contract spread decreased by 2,610 to - 430 [2]. - Industrial Chain Key Price Data: The prices of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan), 60% tin concentrate (Guangxi), 63A solder bar, and 60A solder bar all decreased by 500 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The US May CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. Trump's "confidence in the Iran nuclear negotiations has weakened", and US officials said the US would reduce the scale of its mission in Iraq, causing crude oil prices to surge by more than 5% during trading. Musk publicly apologized to Trump. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Federal Appellate Court extended the validity of Trump's tariffs, and a key hearing will be held at the end of July. The EU refused to compromise on Trump's tariff deadline and plans to postpone trade negotiations until after July. US Treasury Secretary Besent said US inflation data was "very good" [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].