尿素日报：供需矛盾持续，盘面连续下行-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating, expecting the urea market to continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand contradiction of urea persists, and the futures price has reached a new low in the past five months. The downstream agricultural demand is advancing slower than expected, and the industrial demand has decreased. After the inspection information for urea exports is clarified, the export window has opened, but the port inventory has only increased slightly. Some upstream factory inventories are still in the inspection stage, and the factory inventory has accumulated. The urea production facilities have few maintenance activities, and the production remains at a high level, resulting in a relatively loose supply. The prices of upstream raw materials such as coal and natural gas have changed slightly, and the cost has remained stable [1] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on the market prices of small granular urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main contracts, the price of the urea main continuous contract, and the 1-5, 5-9, and 9-1 spreads [7][8][9][12][15] Urea Production - The report shows figures on the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [15] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report presents figures on production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal-based capacity utilization rate, and gas-based capacity utilization rate [17][30][28] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The report contains figures on the FOB prices of small and large granular urea in the Baltic Sea and Southeast Asia, the FOB and CFR prices of small and large granular urea in China, the price differences, and the export and futures export profits [27][29][33][37][39] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report provides figures on the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei [46][42][47] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream factory inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the position volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [45][47][50]