农产品日报:需求仍显清淡,生猪现价维持震荡-20250613
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-06-13 02:37
- Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hog market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg market is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - In the hog market, with decent current breeding profits, the supply - side won't make significant strategic adjustments. Constrained by stable downstream consumption, the demand side is unlikely to improve. The market will likely maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure of large fat hogs is currently high with insufficient demand, and there may be a wide - spread inversion of the price difference between fat and standard hogs, which will also put pressure on the supply of standard hogs, increasing future supply pressure [2] - In the egg market, after the Dragon Boat Festival, demand declined as all sectors actively cleared inventories. After the college entrance examination this week, school demand decreased, while tourism and catering demand increased. However, due to the current high - temperature and high - humidity conditions, the storage time of eggs is reduced, and traders are cautious in purchasing, preferring to buy as needed. Overall demand remains weak, and the market pattern of oversupply in the short term is difficult to change [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hog Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the hog 2509 contract yesterday was 13,750 yuan/ton, a change of +150.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, an increase of +1.10% [1] - Spot: The price of三元hogs in Henan was 14.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 14.24 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.88 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product prices on June 12: The "200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices" was 113.09, down 0.08 points from the previous day. The "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 113.18, down 0.09 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.33 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; beef was 62.96 yuan/kg, down 1.0%; mutton was 59.53 yuan/kg, down 0.7%; eggs were 7.31 yuan/kg, down 1.1%; and white - striped chickens were 17.05 yuan/kg, down 0.1% [1] Market Analysis - The supply - side won't make major adjustments due to good breeding profits. The demand side is weak, and the market will maintain a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern. The supply pressure of large fat hogs is high, and there may be price - difference inversion, increasing future supply pressure [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2507 contract yesterday was 3489 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 26.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of - 0.74% [3] - Spot: The egg price in Liaoning was 2.47 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.09 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.70 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.56 yuan/jin, with no change [3] - Inventory: On June 12, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.56 days, a decrease of 0.10 days from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - After the Dragon Boat Festival, demand declined due to inventory clearance. After the college entrance examination, school demand decreased, and tourism and catering demand increased. High - temperature and high - humidity conditions make traders cautious, and overall demand is weak, with the short - term oversupply pattern hard to change [4] Strategy - Neutral [5]