五矿期货贵金属日报-20250613

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lower - than - expected US PPI data released yesterday has further boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, providing strong support for the prices of gold and silver [2]. - After the data release, US President Trump expressed a strong demand for interest rate cuts, believing that a 200 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed could save the US $600 billion in fiscal expenditures, which further increased the market's expectation of marginal easing by the Fed in the second half of the year [3]. - The US budget deficit in May reached $316 billion, with budget expenditures hitting a record high for a single month. Although customs tax revenue increased significantly due to the Trump administration's tariff policy, it still cannot cover the large - scale fiscal deficit. The current deficit situation in the US supports the strengthening of the gold price [3]. - It is recommended to go long on precious metals at dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Data - Precious Metal Prices: On June 12, 2025, Shanghai gold (Au(T + D)) rose 0.75% to 780.36 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag(T + D)) fell 1.26% to 8770 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.90% to $3406.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.14% to $36.41 per ounce [2][6]. - Other Market Indicators: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.36%, and the US dollar index was 97.8655, down 0.79% [2][4]. Fundamental Data - US PPI Data: In May 2025, the US PPI year - on - year was 2.6% (in line with expectations), and the month - on - month was 0.1% (lower than the expected 0.2%). The core PPI year - on - year was 3% (lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%), and the month - on - month was 0.1% (lower than the expected 0.3%) [2]. - Employment Data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, 2025, was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000 [2]. - Budget Deficit: The US budget deficit in May 2025 was $316 billion. Customs tax revenue in May reached $23 billion, a nearly four - fold increase from the same period last year, but still unable to cover the large - scale fiscal deficit. The US Treasury Secretary expects the deficit - to - GDP ratio for this fiscal year to be between 6.5% and 6.7% [3]. Trading and Position Data - Gold: The trading volume of COMEX gold increased by 12.38% to 224,100 lots, and the position decreased by 4.94% to 415,900 lots. The trading volume of SHFE gold increased by 36.23% to 427,900 lots, and the position increased by 2.95% to 434,400 lots [6]. - Silver: The trading volume of COMEX silver increased by 20.62% to 1,085,400 lots, and the position increased by 10.70% to 163,300 lots. The trading volume of SHFE silver increased by 64.55% to 805,090 tons, and the position increased by 0.89% to 3,511,988 tons [6]. Spread Data - Gold Spread: The SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 3.64 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 2.77 yuan/gram [51]. - Silver Spread: The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 398.11 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA silver spread data is also provided in the report [51].