五矿期货早报有色金属-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term due to neutral sentiment, tight raw material supply, and strong support from low LME registered warrants and high near - month contract positions in SHFE copper [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to rebound, but the upside is limited due to tight spot supply, inventory drawdown, and concerns about US import tariffs [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak due to weak downstream consumption and high regenerated lead inventory [4]. - Zinc prices may experience repeated declines as the zinc ore market remains in surplus, and terminal consumption is weak, although the de - stocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down the decline [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as supply faces uncertainties and downstream enterprises have strong demand for bargain - hunting purchases [7][8]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weak in the long - term, but there is a slight improvement in the short - term fundamentals. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [9]. - Carbonate lithium contract prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the supply - demand repair is slow [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short lightly at high prices as the alumina capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change [13]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate slightly as high inventory suppresses prices, but high production costs slow down the decline [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - LME copper closed up 0.45% at $9690/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,580 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2600 to 116,850 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 58.3%. Domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and bonded area inventory increased slightly. The import loss of domestic copper spot narrowed to about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed to 1430 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - LME aluminum closed up 0.12% at $2519/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,420 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased by 34,000 to 597,000 lots, and the futures warrant decreased by 0.1 to 46,000 tons. The social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots decreased, and the spot remained tight [3]. Lead - SHFE lead index closed up 0.30% at 16,896 yuan/ton. The downstream storage enterprises' production rate dropped to 60%, while the primary lead smelting enterprises' production rate rose to 70%. The regenerated lead inventory remained high at 29,000 tons [4]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index closed down 0.32% at 21,907 yuan/ton. The zinc ore market remained in surplus, and the zinc smelting enterprises' profits increased. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots increased slightly [6]. Tin - In June, the import of domestic tin ore is expected to decrease by 500 - 1000 tons. The downstream enterprises' orders have not increased significantly, but the low - level inventory and bargain - hunting demand support the price [7][8]. Nickel - Affected by the cancellation of the mining ban policy in the Philippines, nickel prices were weak. The supply of nickel ore remained tight, nickel iron prices rebounded, MHP prices remained high, and the price of nickel sulfate was expected to strengthen [9]. Carbonate Lithium - The MMLC carbonate lithium spot index reported 60,637 yuan. The production of domestic carbonate lithium increased by 3.8% to 18,127 tons this week, and the inventory increased by 0.8% to 133,549 tons [11]. Alumina - The alumina index fell 0.03% to 2889 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, and the import window opened. The futures warrant decreased by 0.12 to 82,900 tons [12][13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,585 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The social inventory increased by 2.07% to 1.1455 million tons. High - level inventory suppressed prices, but high production costs slowed down the decline [16].