KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-06-13 03:17Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant increase in overseas HVO/SAF prices, with European prices rising by 13.97% and 11.60% respectively since the lowest points in Q2 2025, driven by strong seasonal demand [5] - The EU is gradually implementing a 2% SAF blending policy, which is expected to enhance the demand for SAF and subsequently increase the price of UCO, benefiting the entire UCO-HVO/SAF industry chain [6] - The demand for UCO is anticipated to grow steadily due to the increasing SAF demand, with domestic UCO prices rising as a result of heightened procurement levels from SAF and biodiesel plants [7] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates a positive outlook for the basic chemical industry, with a maintained investment rating [1] - A notable trend is the increase in UCO prices in China, with prices for gutter oil and waste oil rising by 3.31% and 2.31% respectively since Q2 2025 [5] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the EU's measures to support the SAF market, including subsidies for airlines purchasing sustainable aviation fuel, which is expected to drive up costs and demand [6] - The report notes that China's SAF production costs are lower due to abundant and cheaper UCO resources, positioning China to capture a significant market share in the EU [6] Company Insights - The report provides a table of companies involved in HVO/SAF production, highlighting their planned capacities and market valuations, with 嘉澳环保 leading with a planned capacity of 740,000 tons [10] - The report identifies key beneficiaries of the SAF demand increase, including 嘉澳环保, 海新能科, 卓越新能, and 鹏鹞环保 [6][10]