新能源及有色金属日报：锌价上方压力明显-20250613

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices face significant upward pressure. The supply side has high pressure with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year. Although consumption is currently strong, it can't offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 22,310 yuan/ton, with the premium down 15 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 30 yuan/ton to 22,330 yuan/ton, with the premium up 5 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 20 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with the premium down 5 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On June 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,100 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 118,688 lots, down 51,539 lots. Open interest was 121,089 lots, down 4,690 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,965 - 22,160 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,100 tons, down 2,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 132,025 tons, down 550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Spot market: Downstream procurement enthusiasm is still low, and spot premiums continue to decline [3] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year [3] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs is not yet apparent. It can't offset high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [3]