集运日报：美23日加征钢制家电关税，班轮公司小幅下调运价，符合日报判断，风险偏好者可考虑轻仓逢高试空-20250613

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The US will impose tariffs on steel household appliances on the 23rd, and liner companies have slightly lowered freight rates, which is in line with the daily report's judgment. In the absence of more positive news, the market is more likely to fall than rise. It is recommended that risk - takers consider lightly shorting at high prices [2][3] Summary According to Related Content Freight Rate Index - On June 9, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 2185.08 points, up 27.2% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 1123.64 points, up 5.25% from the previous period, and the NCFI for the US West route was 3259.14 points, down 9.10% from the previous period. The NCFI (composite index) was 1669.44 points, down 0.41% from the previous period [2] - On June 6, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 2240.35 points, up 167.64 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1667 USD/TEU, up 5.04% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 5606 USD/FEU, up 8.39% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1154.98 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1397.02 points, up 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 1034.94 points, up 9.6% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, the preliminary value of the service PMI was 48.9, and the composite PMI was 49.5. The May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [2] - The May Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The preliminary value of the US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, the service PMI was 52.3, and the composite PMI was 52.1 [2] Market Situation and Strategies - The second Sino - US meeting did not make substantial progress. The spot market price range is set, with a slight price cut to test the market. Without more positive news, the market is likely to fall. It is necessary to pay attention to the 90 - day spot freight rate range, the feedback of terminal demand under the relaxation of tariff policies, and the final ruling result [2][3] - Short - term strategy: For the 2506 contract, focus on the logic of basis convergence. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to lightly short when it rebounds above 2250 and set a stop - loss [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rate is stronger than the long - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the court's ruling result, and for now, focus on the positive spread structure [3] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] Market News - On June 12, the main contract 2508 closed at 2001.5, down 2.10%, with a trading volume of 55,100 lots and an open interest of 44,600 lots, a decrease of 891 lots from the previous day [3] - The Middle East situation has escalated overnight, and there is no further information on Sino - US consultations. Some liner companies have slightly lowered the spot market freight rates at the end of June. The market is in a long - short game, and the main contract 2508 rose and then fell. The trading board shows a situation where the near - term is weaker than the long - term [3] - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 16%, the company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 has been adjusted to 26%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3] - Maersk Group announced the launch of the TP9 route from eastern China through the Northeast region to the US West Coast. The east - bound voyage from Xiamen is scheduled to start on June 24, and the west - bound voyage from Long Beach is expected to start on July 15 [4] - Israel has made a new response to the cease - fire and personnel exchange agreement draft in Gaza. While making some flexible adjustments, it still firmly refuses to agree to a permanent end to the military operation in Gaza and requires continued control over the distribution of humanitarian aid materials in the Gaza Strip [4]