扰动钝化下的双向试探

Market Observations - The implied volatility of USD/CNY options has been declining, indicating reduced market expectations for future volatility[4] - The current three-month USD/CNY implied volatility is at 0%[6] Policy Insights - The counter-cyclical factor is hovering around 0%, suggesting limited intervention in the currency market[10] - The three-month CNH HIBOR-SHIBOR differential shows a fluctuating trend with no clear direction[14] Macroeconomic Trends - The Federal Reserve is pricing in a 43.5 basis point rate cut by 2025, reflecting a slight decrease in expectations for rate cuts[18] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of marginal decline, with recent economic activity slightly down and concerns over consumer spending and labor market stability[21] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls showed a moderate decline in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%[22] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month, contributing to inflationary pressures[22] Fiscal Developments - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimates a $2.4 trillion increase in deficits from 2025 to 2034 due to new legislation[23] - The proposed legislation includes significant tax reforms and spending cuts, which may impact economic growth and federal revenue[24]