光大期货金融期货日报-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Wind All A index rising 0.13% and a trading volume of 1.3 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.09%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.12%, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes fell 0.03% and 0.06% respectively. The market volatility declined after sharp fluctuations at the beginning of the week, with the non-ferrous and TMT sectors performing strongly and the home appliance, coal, and food and beverage sectors weakening. Since June, Chinese assets have shown strong performance, with both stocks and bonds rising, pricing in potential policy changes in June. The market expects positive progress in Sino-US communication, changes in long-term consumption stimulus policies, and further capital market reform measures at the Lujiazui Forum in mid-to-late June. The PPI data indicates that China's economic inflation remains low, and the second-quarter fundamentals may shift to a "weak reality, strong expectation" scenario, with consumption and technology likely to dominate the market style. In the first quarter, the revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to narrow for three consecutive quarters but remained below the policy rate, while the net profit increased by about 4% year-on-year, and the ROE was still in the bottoming-out and stabilizing stage [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 30-year main contract rose 0.07%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year main contracts fell 0.04%, 0.04%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 119.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations with a stable interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.2 billion yuan. In the interbank market, the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rose 0.4bp to 1.37%, and that of DR007 rose 1bp to 1.54%. In June, the bond market's focus returned to changes in the capital market. Due to the large maturity pressure of interbank certificates of deposit and the continued increase in government bond issuance, concerns about a temporary tightening of the capital market in June increased. However, the central bank's early announcement of a 50 billion yuan net injection of 3-month outright reverse repurchase operations significantly alleviated market concerns, and the bond market showed a slight bullish steepening trend. In the short term, the expectation of capital market tightness has weakened, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The A-share market showed mixed performance, with different indexes having different trends. The market volatility declined, and certain sectors performed strongly while others weakened. Since June, Chinese assets have performed well, pricing in potential policy changes. The economic inflation remains low, and the market style may be dominated by consumption and technology. The revenue growth rate of A-share listed companies continued to narrow, but the net profit increased, and the ROE was in the bottoming-out stage [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Different maturities of treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds. The interbank market interest rates rose. In June, the bond market focused on capital market changes, and concerns about tightening increased initially but were alleviated later. In the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: The IH contract fell 0.01%, the IF contract rose 0.12%, the IC contract rose 0.33%, and the IM contract rose 0.21%. Among the stock indexes, the SSE 50 fell 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell 0.06%, the CSI 500 rose 0.12%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.09% [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The TS contract fell 0.01%, the TF contract fell 0.06%, the T contract fell 0.05%, and the TL contract rose 0.04% [3]. 3.3 Market News - The first meeting of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism discussed and reached consensus on implementing the leaders' phone call on June 5 and the Geneva talks framework, making new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. China opposes unilateral tariff increases and urges the US to abide by WTO rules and jointly promote the stable and sustainable development of Sino-US economic and trade relations [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical basis trends of each contract [7][9][11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, the historical yields of treasury bonds, the historical basis trends of different maturities of treasury bond futures, the historical inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and the historical trends of capital interest rates [14][16][18]. - Exchange Rates: The report provides the historical trends of the US dollar against the RMB central parity rate, the euro against the RMB central parity rate, forward exchange rates of different tenors, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between different currencies [21][22][25][26].