Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the market is complex, with different trends in various sectors. In the agricultural products sector, the spot market of peanuts is stable but weak, and the short - term trend of the futures market is still weak. The trading volume of edible oils has increased, but the market lacks positive support. The sugar market is affected by international and domestic factors, and the futures price is under pressure. The corn market shows a divergence between the spot and futures markets. The pig and egg markets have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends. In the energy and chemical sector, the urea market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is under pressure. The caustic soda market has a weak fundamental situation. The coking coal and coke markets are affected by factors such as production recovery and downstream demand, showing a weak and volatile trend. In the industrial metals sector, the copper and aluminum markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory, and the price increase momentum is in doubt. The alumina market is under pressure due to supply recovery. The steel market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and inventory, and the price is under short - term pressure. The ferroalloy market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, and the medium - term trend is bearish. The lithium carbonate market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is in a bottom - stage range. In the option and financial sector, the stock index shows an upward trend, but there are differences in the 3400 - point area. The option market has different performance in different varieties, and investors need to take corresponding strategies according to different market conditions [11][13][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Price Changes - Chemical Industry: On June 13, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of some chemical products changed. For example, the price of coking coal decreased by 1.50 to 765.00, with a decline of 0.196%; the price of natural rubber increased by 110.0 to 13,695.00, with an increase of 0.810% [3]. - Agricultural Products: The prices of some agricultural products also changed. For example, the price of yellow soybean No.1 increased by 5.0 to 4,203.00, with an increase of 0.119%; the price of No.1 cotton decreased by 85.0 to 13,435.00, with a decline of 0.629% [3]. 2. Macroeconomic News - Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation: The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held under the strategic guidance of the two heads of state. The two sides reached a principle agreement on the measures framework for implementing the important consensus of the two heads of state's phone call on June 5 and consolidating the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns. The Chinese side opposes unilateral tariff - increasing measures and hopes that the US side will abide by WTO rules and jointly promote the stable and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [6]. - Financial Support for Fujian: The central bank and the foreign exchange administration jointly issued measures to support Fujian in exploring a new path for cross - strait integrated development and building a cross - strait integrated development demonstration zone, including supporting the construction of a multi - level cross - strait financial market [6]. - Economic Data: In May, the real economy continued to grow, with the sales revenue of the manufacturing industry accounting for 30.1% of the national enterprise sales. The sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 7.5% year - on - year [7]. - Stock Market Trends: Since 2025, the domestic innovative drug sector has rebounded, and as of June 12, the Wind innovative drug index has increased by 27.46% year - to - date [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The peanut spot market is stable but weak. The short - term futures market will continue to fluctuate weakly, waiting for new drivers [11]. - Edible Oils: The trading volume of edible oils has increased, but the market lacks positive support, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [11]. - Sugar: The sugar futures price has broken through the support level. The international sugar price is weak, and the domestic spot price has been adjusted. It is recommended to hold short positions but beware of technical rebounds [11]. - Corn: The corn market shows a divergence between the spot and futures markets. The spot market is strong, while the futures market is under pressure. It is recommended that long - position holders take partial profits in the 2360 - 2380 range [11]. - Pigs: The pig price is stable, the supply is relatively stable, and the futures market has a weak rebound [13]. - Eggs: The egg price is stable but weak. The futures market is under pressure due to factors such as high - temperature weather and inventory [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea market price is weak. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the futures price is under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory changes and agricultural demand replenishment [13]. - Caustic Soda: The fundamental situation of the caustic soda market is weak, and the 2509 contract is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [13]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is affected by production recovery and downstream demand, showing a weak and volatile trend [13][15]. Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper and aluminum markets are affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory. The price increase momentum is in doubt, and it is not advisable to chase high prices [15]. - Alumina: The alumina market is under pressure due to supply recovery, and the 2509 contract may continue to be under pressure [15]. - Steel: The steel market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and inventory, and the price is under short - term pressure [15]. - Ferroalloys: The ferroalloy market is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, and the medium - term trend is bearish [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market is in an oversupply situation, and the price is in a bottom - stage range. It is recommended to wait and see and beware of market fluctuations [16]. Option Finance - Stock Index: The stock index shows an upward trend, but there are differences in the 3400 - point area. It is recommended that unilateral long - position holders reduce positions on rallies and operate in a rolling manner [16][17]. - Options: The option market has different performance in different varieties. Trend investors are recommended to defend, and volatility investors are recommended to buy wide - straddle strategies after the volatility decline [18].
中原期货晨会纪要-20250613
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-06-13 03:41