农产品日报（2025 年6 月13日）-20250613

Research Views Corn - Corn futures showed a short - term adjustment after a rapid rise. The spot price in the Northeast was rising, and the auction price provided support. In North China, the price remained strong, with Shandong's purchase price up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The price in the sales area rose 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The near - month contract led the rise, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts widened. The 9 - month contract's performance should be watched, and short - term long positions can be considered [1]. Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were weak on Thursday due to rainfall in the US产区 and limited highlights in the USDA June supply - demand report. Domestic protein meal declined following the external market. There are differences between long and short positions. The long - term logic is based on profit repair and supply uncertainty in the fourth quarter, while the short - term logic is related to improved US weather, weak domestic spot, and good Sino - US relations. Hold long positions in the 91 and 15 spreads of soybean meal and adopt a long - only strategy [1]. Oils - BMD palm oil rose and then fell, affected by supply pressure and inventory increase. High - frequency data showed an increase in exports and a decrease in production in early June. The domestic oil market was weak, with soybean oil falling more than palm oil. Both are in the inventory - building stage, and the price center has shifted down. Short - term participation is recommended, and buy the 9 - month contract and sell the 1 - month contract for soybean oil and palm oil [1]. Eggs - Egg futures declined on Thursday, with the 2508 contract down 0.74% and the 2509 contract down 0.38%. The spot price decreased slightly. The supply will continue to increase before August. Although the plum - rain season has a negative impact on egg prices, the downside is expected to be limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in farmers' culling intentions and feed prices [1][2]. Pigs - The September contract of live pigs led the rise, and the near - month contracts followed. The spot price was weak, with the average price in Henan at 14.00 yuan/kg. The market is in a supply - demand game, and the price is expected to adjust slightly. Technically, the September contract has rebounded, supported by raw material costs and policies. A long - only strategy is recommended [2]. Market Information - The first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism discussed and implemented the consensus of the leaders' call on June 5 and the Geneva talks, making new progress in addressing each other's concerns. China opposes unilateral tariff increases [3]. - The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution stating that Iran failed to comply with its nuclear safeguards obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years [3]. - Trump is preparing to sign a key part of the US - UK trade agreement, which will reduce tariffs on UK cars exported to the US in exchange for US beef and ethanol producers' access to the UK market. UK officials hope to sign the agreement this weekend [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report presents the 9 - 1 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is provided [4][5][7][8][11]. Contract Basis - The report shows the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis is given [12][13][17][19][26]. Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a leader of the top ten research teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title multiple times [28]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has also won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title and her team has won many awards [28]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Her team has won awards at DCE [28].