铁矿石：宏观扰动加剧，短期偏弱运行

Group 1: Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [5] Group 2: Core View - Short - term macro disturbances have intensified again, with the trading focus returning to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand is in a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expanding. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs News - On June 12, local time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances from June 23, including "steel derivatives" such as dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [3] Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China has increased significantly, with a notable increase in Australian shipments, a decline in Brazilian shipments from a high level, and small fluctuations in shipments from non - mainstream countries. In June, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. With the fiscal year volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will weaken marginally [4] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks, with an average daily output of 241.61 this period (month - on - month - 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively good. It is expected that the molten iron will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be small, and high demand supports the price [5] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ores at steel mills has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption has continued to decline but remains at a high level in the same period. With the increase in arrivals and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. Due to the weak market demand expectation, the restocking expectation is weak [5]