Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From April to May, the black metal sector showed a pattern of strong current reality but weak future expectations, with the discount of futures prices to spot prices widening. The current real - demand is acceptable, especially the export demand is resilient. Steel mills have good profitability and are mostly operating at full capacity, with hot metal production expected to remain between 240 - 245 million tons for a long time. Attention should be paid to whether the weak demand expectation in the off - season can be realized. If the expectation is false, prices may rebound; otherwise, the weakness may continue. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Iron ore has a risk of supplementary decline in the medium term, and coking coal may fall again due to the oversupply situation [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Background - From April to May, the steel market had strong current demand but weak future expectations. The market was pessimistic about the future due to the off - season and the Sino - US trade conflict, leading to a large discount of futures to spot prices. At the end of May, the US raised steel tariffs, but market expectations eased after the Sino - US leaders' call. The research team visited 8 local enterprises in Tangshan from June 9th to understand the supply - demand situation, the impact of tariff hikes on exports, and enterprises' views on the market [5]. 3.2 Research Conclusions - Order situation: Steel mills' orders are generally booked 15 - 30 days in advance, with over - selling being common. Demand for shipbuilding and infrastructure steel is good, while construction steel demand is poor. Some steel mills reported slower downstream purchases due to the expected off - season [2][6]. - Profitability and production: Steel mills' profit per ton is generally between 150 - 160 yuan, and some steel billet profits can reach 200 yuan/ton. Most enterprises are operating at full capacity, with hot metal production expected to stay between 240 - 245 million tons for a long time [2][6][8]. - Export situation: Although there was a brief impact on exports in early April due to the trade conflict, exports have been performing well since then. Some steel mills' export orders are booked until August or September, and high export profits have reduced the available steel billet resources [2][6]. - Raw material inventory: Steel mills' iron ore inventory is about 10 - 15 days, and coking coal and coke are purchased as needed, with inventory levels of 2 - 7 days [2][6]. - Market outlook: Enterprises have different views on the future, but generally, the industry is cautious, not expecting a short - term improvement. Most believe that the oversupply of coking coal remains unchanged, and prices may fall further [2][6][7]. - Operation strategies: Some local enterprises are buying rebar futures and selling forward - delivery steel billet spot. Others are hedging iron ore through futures or over - the - counter options to lock in costs [7]. 3.3 Research Minutes by Enterprise - A steel trader: The enterprise mainly sells wear - resistant plates and medium - thick plates. Inventory is low, about 2 - 3 million tons locally. Sales have doubled this year compared to last year, and export orders are good. The enterprise is not pessimistic about the second half of the year, believing that policy may be further strengthened, and coking coal prices below 800 yuan won't last long [9]. - A plate processing warehouse: It belongs to a large Xiamen - based trading enterprise, with a current inventory of about 4 million tons. Exports decreased after May due to stricter government control. Processing volume has declined, and the current processing capacity is 200 - 300 tons per day [10]. - A mainstream steel billet warehouse: It is the largest steel storage in Tangshan, with a current inventory of about 20 million tons. Steel mills are prioritizing export orders, resulting in less available steel billet resources. The enterprise is pessimistic about the future, expecting prices to gradually decline [13][14]. - An international trading company A under a steel mill: The affiliated steel mill has a capacity of 7.1 million tons. The company is operating at full capacity, with good profit margins for strip steel and section steel. Orders are booked well in advance, and exports have recovered. Raw material inventory is low [15]. - An international trading company B under a steel mill: The company believes that the steel billet market is in a bullish structure. It is buying rebar futures and selling steel billet spot. Industry - wide steel billet export orders are good. The enterprise is not pessimistic about the second half of the year [17]. - Steel mill A: It has an annual capacity of 7.5 million tons. After a blast furnace resumed operation, it is expected to have another maintenance. Profits are high, and orders are booked one month in advance. Export has recovered. The enterprise is pessimistic about July - August due to expected hot metal production decline and believes coking coal prices will fall further [18][19]. - Steel mill B: With a capacity of 10 million tons, it has good sales and profits, and is operating at full capacity. It is not pessimistic about the future, but believes that cost factors may drag down steel prices [20]. - Steel mill C: It has a capacity of about 2 million tons, with good profits and full - capacity production. Orders are booked until September. The enterprise believes the market is at the bottom, and is conducting some futures - cash reverse arbitrage and iron ore hedging. It thinks coking coal will remain weak [21].
唐山地区黑色产业链调研报告
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-06-13 06:21