中信期货晨报：黑色系表现弱势，金、油相对偏强-20250613

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, reflecting the continuous impact of tariff policies on demand and inflation. Although economic data was weak, the May non - farm payrolls and wage growth were better than expected, reducing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Attention should be paid to option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: After the China - US talks, prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - Iron ore: Small - sample hot metal production slightly decreased, and macro factors will affect prices. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: Demand support is weakening, and market expectations are pessimistic. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking coal: Upstream production stoppages have increased, but trading has not improved. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Other products such as ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the market is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to ore production resumption and electrolytic aluminum production resumption [7]. - Aluminum: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies, aluminum prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: After progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, opportunities for shorting zinc at high prices should be noted. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals such as lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and industrial silicon are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks have intensified, increasing price volatility. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - Other products such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, etc. have different short - term trends and influencing factors, mainly showing range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Livestock: For pigs, high average weights will put pressure on spot and near - term prices. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - Other agricultural products such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, cotton, sugar, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].