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可控核聚变新阶段,迈向终极能源第一步
Soochow Securities·2025-06-13 07:48

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the controlled nuclear fusion industry, driven by policy and capital support, with significant potential for growth and commercialization in the coming years [4][30]. Core Insights - Controlled nuclear fusion is viewed as the ultimate energy solution due to its high energy density, abundant fuel supply, and superior safety [4][9]. - The current phase of controlled nuclear fusion is characterized by a dual drive of policy and capital, with numerous projects underway globally, particularly in China and the US, aiming for commercial viability by the 2030s to 2040s [4][30]. - Various technological pathways are emerging, including magnetic confinement (tokamak), inertial confinement (NIF), and magnetic inertial confinement, with significant advancements expected in the next few years [4][30]. Summary by Sections Part 1: What is Controlled Nuclear Fusion? - Controlled nuclear fusion involves the merging of lighter atomic nuclei to form a heavier nucleus, releasing significant energy, primarily using deuterium and tritium as fuel [9][10]. Part 2: Why is Now a New Phase for Controlled Nuclear Fusion? - The industry is experiencing a surge in support from governments worldwide, with China implementing multiple policies to foster development, including financial backing and international collaboration [30][33]. - The number of active fusion companies has increased significantly, with around 50 globally, 80% of which are private enterprises, indicating a robust investment landscape [40][41]. Part 3: Device Architecture Breakdown and Industry Cost Map - The report outlines the cost structure of fusion devices, with initial experimental tokamak investments around 15 billion yuan, and highlights the significant capital required for development [4][30]. Part 4: Competitive Cost of Fusion Power - The report estimates the cost of electricity from fusion devices, with projected costs of 0.31 and 0.27 yuan/kWh for low-temperature superconducting and linear magnetic inertial fusion devices, respectively, indicating competitive pricing compared to traditional energy sources [4][30]. Part 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key suppliers in the fusion supply chain, including companies like Western Superconducting, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, and Antai Technology, as they are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the fusion sector [4][30].