贵金属数据日报-20250613

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - On June 12, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.04% to 785.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.88% to 8819 yuan/kg [2]. - In the short - term, due to the warming of Middle - East geopolitics, uncertainties in tariffs and fees, better - than - expected data in the US in June, and the cooling of core PPI in May, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in August has increased, the US dollar index has fallen below 100 again, which boosts the rebound of gold prices. Gold prices are expected to maintain high - level range - bound in the short - term, and the medium - and long - term upward view remains unchanged. For silver, the repair of the gold - silver ratio is basically established, and the silver price is expected to return to the macro + fundamental logic, with a risk of further weakening in the short - term [2]. - In the medium - and long - term, the background of the trade war still exists, the US economy still faces downward risks, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With the intensification of great - power games and the trend of de - dollarization, global central banks' gold purchases continue, and the monetary attribute of gold is constantly strengthened. The medium - and long - term upward trend has not changed. The strategy is to continue to allocate more on dips [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - On June 12, 2025, London gold spot was 3373.58 dollars/ounce, up 1.1% from June 11; London silver spot was 36.25 dollars/ounce, down 0.9%; COMEX gold was 3393.80 dollars/ounce, up 1.1%; COMEX silver was 36.38 dollars/ounce, down 1.0%. AU2508 was 785.16 yuan/gram, up 1.0%; AG2508 was 8819 yuan/kg, down 0.9%; AU (T + D) was 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.9%; AG (T + D) was 8798 yuan/kg, down 1.0% [2]. Spread/Ratio Tracking - On June 12, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.46 yuan/gram, up 10.5% from June 11; the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 21 yuan/kg, up 50.0%; the gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.90 yuan/gram, down 26.7%; the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 89.03, up 1.9%; the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 93.30, up 2.1%; AU2512 - 2508 was 3.72 yuan/gram, down 1.1%; AG2512 - 2508 was 34 yuan/kg, down 12.8% [2]. Position Data - As of June 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 934.19 tons, down 0.18% from June 10; the silver ETF - SLV was 14729.07854 tons, up 0.27%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 246982 contracts, up 5.51%; the non - commercial short position was 59077 contracts, down 1.38%; the non - commercial net long position was 187905 contracts, up 7.88%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 81981 contracts, up 11.93%; the non - commercial short position was 21211 contracts, up 4.86%; the non - commercial net long position was 60770 contracts, up 14.63% [2]. Inventory Data - On June 12, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 17847.00 kg, up 0.17% from June 11; the SHFE silver inventory was 1226150.00 kg, down 0.30%. On June 11, the COMEX gold inventory was 37929466 troy ounces, with a 0.00% change from June 10; the COMEX silver inventory was 497946180 troy ounces, up 0.56% [2]. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On June 12, 2025, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.18, down 0.02% from June 11. On June 11, the US dollar index was 98.65, down 0.41% from June 10; the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.94%, down 1.75%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.41%, down 1.34%; the VIX was 17.26, up 1.83%; the S&P 500 was 6022.24, down 0.27%; the NYMEX crude oil was 68.30 dollars/barrel, up 5.50% [2]. Economic Data - The US May PPI was up 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the previous value was 2.4%. The US May core PPI was up 3.0% year - on - year, the lowest since August 2024, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was 3.1%. Month - on - month, the May PPI rose only 0.1%, lower than the expected 0.2%, and the core PPI also rose only 0.1%, with commodity prices (excluding food and energy) up 0.2% and service prices up 0.1% [2]. - The UK April GDP contracted 0.3% month - on - month, the first contraction in six months, worse than the expected 0.1% contraction, and the previous value was a 0.2% increase [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week ending June 7 was 248,000, rising to the highest level since the end of 2021, higher than the expected 242,000, and the previous value was 247,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending June 3 was 1.956 million, higher than the expected 1.91 million, and the previous value was revised from 1.904 million to 1.902 million [2].