蛋白数据日报-20250613

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Overall, with no significant abnormalities in the weather in US soybean - producing areas and a slight decline in Brazilian premiums, the decline is expected to be limited under the unchanged Sino - US trade policy. Under the current Sino - US policy, there is a de - stocking expectation in the fourth quarter, which supports the center of the soybean meal futures price to rise. The domestic demand improvement supports the soybean meal, which is currently accumulating inventory at a slow pace but is expected to accelerate later. With the progress of purchasing ships, the expected increase of M09 is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in May, June, and July is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current purchase progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. The planting progress of US soybeans is relatively fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for the early growth of soybeans [3]. Demand - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to gradually increase before September, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and the downstream transactions have increased and the pick - up has improved [3]. Inventory - As of last week, the domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal is also accumulating inventory, but the current inventory is still at a low level. With the significant recovery of the crushing rate, it is expected that the soybean meal inventory will accelerate in late June [3]. Data - The report provides data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot basis, spread data (such as M9 - RM9), CNF premium of imported soybeans, exchange rate of US dollars to RMB, inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, national major oil mills' soybean and soybean meal, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and the crushing volume and startup rate of national major oil mills [1][2].